Mondays nearly always offer a limited MLB slate with sub-par pitching matchups, which is exactly the case tonight, with nearly half of the league off and bottom-of-the-rotation starting pitchers littered across the MLB action. As such, I have just one play for today’s MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks.
We will take advantage of a key injury and target two right-handed pitchers, which I find to be extremely underrated in the Guardians versus Yankees contest. My last two cards have each gone 2-0, so let's make it 5-0 with Monday's truncated MLB slate.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians
Starting Pitchers: Will Warren vs. Gavin Williams
The Guardians will send out Gavin Williams, who sneakily currently leads all American League pitchers in strikeouts (94). While Williams does have a tendency to get hit somewhat hard when he's squared up, his swing-and-miss stuff is certainly among the best in the game.
Williams ranks in the 84th percentile in chase rate, with whiff and strikeout rates that both fall just shy of the 90th percentile. That's not great news for a Yankees offense that ranks in the bottom 10 in strikeouts this season and always tends to be prone to striking out.
Also, I like that Williams has a groundball rate of 45.8%, which puts him in the 65th percentile and helps mitigate some of the hard-hit balls he gives up from time to time.
One of the most critical components of this play is that the Yankees will be without Aaron Judge, which skews their season-long metrics, most notably their slugging and on-base numbers. This makes them a much less formidable offense and reduces the Bombers’ chances of a first-inning home run.
Will Warren is not your typical back-of-the-rotation starter and has been extremely productive for the Yankees in the early going of the season. Warren holds a 7-1 record and a 3.22 ERA, which is essentially mirrored by his 72nd-percentile 3.35 xERA.
Warren’s xBA ranks among the top third of all pitchers at 0.230, and although he isn't quite as elite as Williams when it comes to whiffs, his stuff is still really good. Warren ranks just outside of the top quartile of pitchers with a 74th percentile strikeout rate, and his 7% walk rate is by far the best of his career and sits above the 70th percentile.
This seems to be another typical year of Guardians baseball, where they continue to rack up wins despite their offense. The Guardians rank in the bottom half of baseball in on-base percentage (OBP), in the bottom 10 in home runs, in the bottom five in both average and OPS and in the bottom three in slugging rate.
Add in the fact that Progressive Field ranks in the bottom 10 in both overall offensive ballpark factors and home run factors since 2024, and I love the NRFI side tonight.
Pick: NRFI (-127 at BetRivers)
