As the calendar prepares to flip to September, we’re entering the home stretch for this MLB season. I’ve got two MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks this evening, featuring three teams that figure to be penciled into postseason spots and a fourth team that is very much alive for a postseason spot in the American League.
To be fair, a lot of teams are still very much alive for postseason spots in the American League. One of the plays has a bit of heavier juice, balanced by some plus money on the other play, and I’m looking to get both to the window on this final day of August.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers: George Kirby vs. Payton Tolle
Payton Tolle has burst onto the scene for the Red Sox this season, figuring to be a top-of-the-rotation arm for many years to come. His ERA of 3.09 is solid, but when you consider that his xERA is nearly half a run lower and grades out in the 95th percentile, it suggests he’s been even better than his ERA indicates.
Tolle’s offspeed and breaking ball run values both grade out among the top third of all pitchers in terms of run value, and his fastball grades out among the top quartile for an overall pitching run value, which ranks in the 84th percentile. Tolle generates swings and misses, evident by his 68th percentile whiff rate, 93rd percentile chase rate and 85th percentile strikeout rate.
The Red Sox pitcher also does an excellent job avoiding hard contact, with a 66th percentile barrel rate, a 74th percentile average exit velocity and an 82nd percentile hard-hit rate.
George Kirby will take the opposing mound for the Mariners. He’s in the midst of a somewhat disappointing but albeit unlucky season. His xERA grades out comfortably above league average at 3.88, but his actual ERA is up at 4.02.
Kirby grades out above the 70th percentile in terms of fastball run value, with an 89th percentile chase rate and an elite walk rate of just 5.5%. His barrel rate and groundball rate also grade out above the 60th percentile. When balls do get hit hard, they tend to stay out of the air more often than most.
While the Red Sox do reach base at a pretty high frequency, they’re middling in terms of slugging rate, and they have hit the seventh-fewest home runs in all of baseball. They also have a bottom-10 walk rate, and rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored.
That’s way better than you can say about the Mariners, though, as Seattle ranks in the bottom three in on-base percentage and slugging rate and dead last in batting average and OPS. They rank 15th in both home runs and walks, have recorded the seventh-most strikeouts and rank dead last in total runs scored. I think Tolle absolutely dominates tonight, and I like Kirby to also get through the first inning unscathed to cash this NRFI.
Pick: NRFI (-130 @ BetRivers)
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Harrison vs. Clay Holmes
The underlying metrics tell us that Clay Holmes hasn’t been quite as good as his 2.26 ERA might indicate, but he’s still had a really terrific season. His stuff is as nasty as ever, with a breaking ball and offspeed run value in the top quartile, a fastball run value in the 84th percentile and an overall pitching run value in the 90th percentile.
Holmes’ chase rate ranks in the top quartile of pitchers, and his barrel rate grades out in the 83rd percentile. But his calling card is - and always has been - his ability to keep the ball out of the air. His groundball rate ranks among the very best in the game, just shy of 60%, placing him in the 98th percentile. That probably has a lot to do with why his actual numbers outperform his expected metrics - when he gets hit hard, he at least tends to keep those balls in play on the ground.
Kyle Harrison will get the start for the first-place Milwaukee Brewers as yet another reclamation project that the organization has turned into a really good starting pitcher. Harrison’s fastball grades out in the top quartile of pitchers in terms of run value, with 96th percentile breaking pitches, for an overall pitching run value in the 84th percentile.
Harrison’s swing-and-miss stuff is great, with a whiff rate and chase rate in the top quartile of pitchers and a strikeout rate that puts him in the 92nd percentile among the game’s best. He ranks above average in average exit velocity and barrel rate, with a hard-hit rate that grades out in the 71st percentile. His 6.4% walk rate has him above the 60th percentile in that department.
The caveat with this play is that it’s going to be entirely up to the pitchers to get it done, as these two offenses are among the best in baseball. If you want to get nitpicky with the Brewers, they have hit the fewest home runs in baseball, but even that hasn’t stopped them from ranking near the top of the league in OPS.
This win is expected to be a blowout at Wrigley Field, which improves the hitting environment. But at least we’re getting some plus-money on this play to balance out the heavier juice in the first game.
Pick: NRFI (+108 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
