From an MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks perspective, we are .500 on the season. Down slightly more than three units is a result of the heavy juice on some lines, which oddsmakers tend to take advantage of with these kinds of wagers being wrapped up so early.
I’m back to dive into some games on today’s slate for our top MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks. I’ve looked for what value I could find, but the most important thing is that they’re winning wagers, as any 2-1 day would turn a profit.
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Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 20-20 (-3.59 units, -9% ROI)
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitchers: Nolan McLean vs. Martin Perez
The Mets lost the first two games of this series, their 11th and 12th losses in 14 games. In that span, they were held to three or fewer runs 10 times.
I am not worried that Juan Soto snapped a 10-game home run drought on Friday, or that he was batting .423 with 11 home runs, 23 RBI and a .910 slugging rate in 22 games against National League East opponents entering the weekend.
I also do not fancy Atlanta’s chances of scoring in the first frame. The Braves were an MLB-worst 5-14 since June 9th. That poor stretch of play was largely tied to an inept offense that ranked 30th in runs (59), batting average (.212), on-base percentage (.268), slugging rate (.312) and home runs (14) over that span.
I’m buying Nolan McLean’s mid-season resurgence, as he has pitched at least six scoreless innings in two of his last three starts.
Pick: NRFI (-118)
Miami Marlins vs. Athletics
Starting Pitchers: Eury Perez vs. Gage Jump
The Athletics allowed 19 runs in the first two games of this series, putting them on pace to allow seven runs per game at home. That would be the most in a single season by any American League team since 1940.
Granted, Gage Jump has been the least of the team’s worries with a solid 2.93 ERA. But even he isn’t immune to Sutter Health Park’s hitter-friendly environment. Jump’s home ERA (4.98) is much worse than his minuscule 0.49 ERA in three road starts.
The @Marlins have scored 5 runs before making an out 😮 pic.twitter.com/8d8Uwhd1Hg
— MLB (@MLB) July 4, 2026
Jump faces a Marlins lineup that ranked fifth in OPS (.798) in June. Miami’s pitching staff also ranked first in team ERA and opponents’ average (.220) for the month. Eury Perez has a troubling 5.14 ERA in the first inning this season. Let’s back the yes runs first inning (YRFI) side in this one.
Pick: YRFI (-130)
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Pitchers: JP Sears vs. Emmet Sheehan
Emmet Sheehan allowed six home runs in 21 innings in June. He now has more starts with multiple home runs allowed (four) than homer-less starts (three) in his last 10 outings. His 17th percentile barrel rate and 25th percentile groundball rate play poorly, even against a Padres lineup ranked 22nd in home runs.
Two of San Diego’s sluggers who figure to bat early against Sheehan have done well in their head-to-head splits: Ty France is 3-for-4, and Manny Machado’s two hits in six at-bats are both home runs.
I would be a lot more confident in this YRFI wager if Shohei Ohtani were back in the Dodgers’ lineup after nursing a biceps injury yesterday. Even still, I have faith in Freddie Freeman (2-for-3 against Sears) and Mookie Betts (.333/.357/.519 slash line over the last seven days entering the weekend).
Pick: YRFI (-128)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.