With only a few Mondays remaining in the MLB season, we only have a few more opportunities for our NRFI bets. Let’s take a look at the best bets for the day!
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 ET
2022 has been a breakout season for Merrill Kelly, with a 3.01 ERA thus far across 179 innings. He did not have a major change in strikeouts or walks, but the improvement seems to be tied to his ability to limit homers. The interesting thing for Kelly, however, is that he seems to struggle early in games relative to the rest of the game. His wOBA allowed the first time through the order is 0.314 compared to around 0.255 the second and third time through. There are few, if any, offenses with a better top third of the lineup than the Dodgers, but I do believe Kelly can overcome his weaknesses and make it through the first unscathed.
The game will be started by Clayton Kershaw, who, despite his injuries and age, he has not slipped up at all in terms of skillset. His 2.44 ERA is one of the best of his career, and he is continuing to generate tons of Ks while limiting walks. This Diamondbacks offense has improved a ton lately and is actually one of the better offenses in the league over the last 30 days. Still, Kershaw is a generational talent continuing to pitch at an extremely high level. He should easily hold up his end of the bargain.
Pick: NRFI -125
Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays – 6:40 ET
Luis Garcia is getting the start today for the Astros, and his season hasn’t gone as planned for him. His 4.04 ERA is a bit higher than his career numbers, and while some of the estimators are viewing him more favorably, his biggest issue has been home runs allowed. He is allowing more than a home run per inning which is well up from his career norms. After a slow start to the season, the Tampa offense has turned it around and is now top ten in runs scored over the last 30 days. However, a large part of Garcia’s struggles seems to come from staying too long in games and giving up a ton of runs, so I have confidence he can make it through the first cleanly.
For the Rays, Drew Rasmussen gets the start. Rasmussen has been excellent this season with a sub-three ERA. He has been succeeding by posting excellent walk rates and limiting strong contact and the long ball. It may be just as futile to target this Astros offense as it is the Dodgers as their top three may rival the top of the Dodgers order. However, Rasmussen has dominated early in games, he has only allowed 12 runs in 55 innings the first time through the order. He seems to be yet another one of these Rays starters that they seem to find out of thin air. The matchup is tough, but he should be able to keep the Astros offense off the board.
Pick: NRFI -135
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