The San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds continue to send shockwaves through Major League Baseball, entering with the league’s two longest winning streaks (15 consecutive wins between them). Couple that with the Arizona Diamondbacks leading the NL West and the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals each being 5.5 games out of a playoff spot, and things are topsy turvy in the National League.
Here are our MLB best bets for Monday.
Today's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Toronto Blue Jays (-172) vs. Miami Marlins (-144)| O/U 8.5 (-102/-120)
After Jose Berrios took a no-hit bid into the seventh inning and eventually earned the win in his last start against the Baltimore Orioles, ESPN Stats & Info took to Twitter to document how historic that victory was.
Jays P José Berríos improved to 10-0 his career against the Orioles with his win tonight.
That's tied for the 3rd-most wins without a loss vs a single opponent over the last 80 years (Randy Johnson 13-0 vs Cubs; Clayton Kershaw 11-0 vs Mets; Bill Gullickson 10-0 vs Mariners). pic.twitter.com/Z9z5kQ7qGu
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) June 15, 2023
While many people will overlook Berrios’ accomplishment, given that he has long dominated Baltimore, the fact is he has been pitching well for quite some time. Berrios has pitched to a 1.11 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his last five starts. In addition, he has a 1.37 ERA in three June starts and held opponents to a .164 batting average, despite two of those coming against teams 6+ games over .500 and ranking in the top half of the league in runs scored. He now faces a Miami Marlins team that ranks 17th or worse in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS in home games, despite being top-three in BABIP.
The Marlins will use an opener in Bryan Hoeing to oppose Berrios, and we are confident in Miami’s bullpen to keep the Toronto Blue Jays hitters off-balance the first couple of times through the order. And entering Sunday, the Blue Jays had scored the fourth-fewest runs per game in the league (3.70) dating back to May 24, per StatsCentre. Nevertheless, we are limiting this wager on the total to the first five innings, primarily because of our lack of trust in the Blue Jays bullpen.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-115)
Boston Red Sox (+120) vs. Minnesota Twins (-142) | O/U 8 (-104/-118)
Boston Red Sox southpaw James Paxton comes into this start having thrown 12 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings. He should have similar success against a Minnesota Twins lineup that has been poor against lefties all season, ranking 28th in wRC+, and is still 26th against southpaws in June. The Twins also rank 21st in hard-hit contact and 19th in HR/FB against lefties, and we do not expect many long balls against Paxton, who has not allowed a home run in his previous 18 2/3 innings. On the other side, Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez has a 53% strikeout rate with two strikes (fifth-best among qualified pitchers), per Inside Edge, and should be in line for a third consecutive quality start.
We wanted to fade Boston as a situational play, as they got into Minnesota early Monday morning after playing a doubleheader on Sunday. Instead, we expect a lack of offensive production, especially since the Twins are 5-0 in Lopez’s last five home starts. Thus, we prefer the contrarian play of the Under cashing for the first time in the previous six meetings between these teams.
Pick: Under 8 (-118)
New York Mets (+110) vs. Houston Astros (-130) | O/U 7.5 (-105/-115)
It isn’t easy to back the Houston Astros after getting swept by the Cincinnati Reds and going 3-9 in their last 12 games. The good news is the New York Mets, losers of seven of their last eight road games, come to town. And oddsmakers expect rookie Hunter Brown to outpitch veteran Max Scherzer, instilling the Astros as slight favorites.
Brown has at least four starts of 7+ innings pitched and zero earned runs allowed this season and has not allowed an earned run in 9 1/3 innings entering this start. He has recorded at least 18 outs in four of his previous five starts and has not allowed a home run in 33 2/3 innings at Minute Maid Park, which should increase his chances of a longer outing. Conversely, Scherzer’s 38-year-old arm is showing signs of wear, as he has allowed 11 earned runs over his last two starts, and his -5.3% decrease in strikeout rate from last year to this year is tenth-worst among starting pitchers.
Houston has won each of Brown’s last four starts against teams with a losing record, so back the favorites with confidence.
Max Scherzer gets booed loudly after exiting the game after 3.1 IP allowing 6 earned runs... pic.twitter.com/Tv896k7BRX
— WardyNYM (@TheWardyNYM) June 14, 2023
Pick: Astros ML (-130)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.