MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers: Sunday (7/2)

A rough Saturday to say the least. Nonetheless, we will keep chipping away. Staying in that first 5 inning lane helps us limit the randomness that comes with bullpens. Remember, we will post our ML record from earlier in the season, but we are focusing on smaller parlays and the lottery ticket parlays from here on out. Let's continue the momentum and dive into today's slate!

Sunday's Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

Record:

ML: 21-19 (-7.8 units)
Parlay: 2-9 (-4.13 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-8 (-2.25 units)
Overall: -14.18 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at Starting Pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will ignore arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in pitchers that are overlooked or overrated. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed. Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.

Glossary:

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary

The rankings for each category are based on the 166 Starting Pitchers who have at least 30 innings pitched this season. The database will grow as the season goes and we will adjust accordingly. Let's dive in!

Miami Marlins (+172) @ Atlanta Braves (-220) First 5 innings

Sanday Alcantara (MIA)

44th in FIP
111th in ERA
102nd in K-BB%
153rd in LOB%
21st in GB%
26th in HR/FB%
102.2 innings

Spencer Strider (ATL)

12th in FIP
55th in ERA
2nd in K-BB%
73rd in LOB%
162nd in GB%
107th in HR/FB%
91.2 innings pitched

Spencer Strider is one of the premier pitchers in the league. His elite K-BB% stifles pretty much every lineup he faces. Alcantara is a worthy counterpart but he faces a Braves lineup that is on another planet right now. Atlanta is 1st vs RHP with a stellar 171 in wRC+ over the last month. To put that in perspective, the Los Angeles Angels are 2nd with a 143 in wRC+. I see Atlanta scoring enough runs to put this out of reach, especially in the first 5 innings.

Bet: Atlanta (-220) first 5 innings is my favorite play of the day.

Washington Nationals (+200) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-260) First 5 innings

Trevor Williams (WAS)

133rd in FIP
84th in ERA
112th in K-BB%
55th in LOB%
101st in GB%
120th in HR/FB%
80 innings pitched

Ranger Suarez (TEX)

9th in FIP
29th in ERA
54th in K-BB%
48th in LOB%
15th in GB%
15th in HR/FB%
51 innings pitched

Suarez has a stellar advanced statistic profile. He ranks top 15 in FIP, GB%, and HR/FB%. He is also above average in K-BB%. He will face a Washington lineup that should offer little resistance. Washington is 24th vs LHP in wRC+ over the last month. Williams is bottom 35 in FIP and Philadelphia should be able to score runs early and often.

Bet: Philadelphia (-260) First 5 innings can be played with confidence.

Boston Red Sox (+170) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-220) First 5 innings

Garrett Whitlock (BOS)

84th in FIP
121st in ERA
42nd in K-BB%
104th in LOB%
58th in GB%
122nd in HR/FB%
50.2 innings pitched

Kevin Gausman (TOR)

2nd in FIP
22nd in ERA
3rd in K-BB%
66th in LOB%
66th in GB%
46th in HR/FB%
104.2 innings pitched

Gausman is the only pitcher that ranks top 5 in FIP and K-BB%. He is having an incredible year. His success should continue against Boston which ranks 25th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Whitlock is an average MLB starter that faces off against a Toronto lineup that ranks 10th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month.

Bet: Toronto (-220) First 5 innings

The Bets

ML Parlay

Atlanta (-220) First 5 innings
Philadelphia (-260) First 5 innings
Toronto (-220) First 5 innings

This gives us three top-tier starters and three lineups that are trending in the right direction.

Parlay Odds: +190 for 2.5 units

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>