The second half of the Major League Baseball season officially gets underway today as the All-Star Game festivities have come and gone. Every team except the Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins are in action, and just 12 of the games are of the interleague variety, which means we have plenty of games where the opponents are very familiar with each other.
Let’s dive into my top three MLB picks and predictions for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
Friday’s Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Rays (+144) at New York Yankees (-172) | O/U 8 (-115/-105)
New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole makes his sixth start of the season, and his fifth against a division rival, when he faces the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. Cole may be just 4-7 in 19 career starts against Tampa Bay, but he went 2-0 against the Rays in four starts last year and has held current Rays hitters to a combined .213/.265/.322 slash line in 169 at-bats, with a 30.8% strikeout rate.
While other pitchers struggle on extended rest, Cole's 10.4 K/9 rate on six days' rest is right in line with his career 10.1 and 10.8 K/9 averages on four and five days' rest. He has recorded seven or more strikeouts in back-to-back starts, and should at least reach that plateau again when facing a Rays lineup that strikes out at the seventh-highest rate in the majors (24.0%).
Opposing Cole is Zach Eflin, who has pitched to a 1.50 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an 8:1 K:BB ratio in 42 innings against the Yankees, and considering he leads the majors in walk rate (0.8 BB/9), he will make New York earn everything it gets offensively.
The Under is 13-7 in Tampa Bay’s last 20 games (+7.75 units/35% ROI), and we expect it to be the right side of the total tonight.
MLB Pick: Under 8 Total Runs (-105)
San Diego Padres (+116) at Cleveland Guardians (-134) | O/U 7.5 (-120/-102)
Guardians righty Tanner Bibee has held opposing right-handed batters to a .182 OBA and .308 slugging percentage this season, which will come in very handy when facing the likes of Manny Machado and others. Bibee pitched to a 2.86 ERA and .208 OBA in five June starts, and despite his ERA swelling to 6.17 in July, he has averaged fewer than one hit allowed per inning.
Conversely, we expect Padres righty Matt Waldron to struggle against a Guardians lineup that can send nine batters to the plate that are either lefties or switch hitters. Waldron has been lights out against righties (.224/.278/.347 slash line allowed), but his unique arsenal is not as effective against lefties, who have combined for a .240/.310/.418 slash line.
Cleveland is an MLB-best 30-11 at home and eight games over .500 against teams with a winning record (25-17), while the Padres have struggled with winning teams, going just 26-29 in that split. Back the Guardians to take care of business in this first game post-All-Star Break.
MLB Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-134)
Chicago White Sox (+166) at Kansas City Royals (-198) | O/U 8.5 (-120/-102)
The Kansas City Royals hand the ball to Michael Wacha to begin the second half of the season, and the team is looking for their fourth consecutive win when he toes the rubber. In that span, Kansas City has beaten three teams that are .500 or better (St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Guardians), while two of those would be playoff teams if the postseason began today. In that span, Wacha has averaged more than a strikeout per inning, and he has allowed one or fewer earned runs in three of his previous four starts after entering June with a 4.24 ERA.
Compared to his difficult schedule lately, facing a Chicago White Sox lineup that ranks dead-last in the Majors in every slash line category (.218 batting average, .279 on-base percentage, .344 slugging) should seem like a walk in the park.
Kansas City has profited bettors +9.59 units (15% ROI) while going 29-18 against the run line in its last 47 home games, and we are getting great value while laying the 1.5 runs in this matchup.
MLB Pick: Royals -1.5 (+102)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.