The Fourth of July has come and gone, and with it went all the previous 15 series that began either Monday or Tuesday. The weekend brings an entire new slate of head-to-head matchups, from arguably the best rivalry in the sport (Yankees-Red Sox) to two possible NL playoff previews (Phillies-Braves, Brewers-Dodgers).
We have gone a combined 11-3 over the last week with our MLB Best Bets over the last week, capped by another profitable 2-1 day last Friday, and we are back to keep the momentum going heading into the weekend.
Let’s dive into my top MLB picks for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
MLB Picks & Predictions: Friday’s Best Bets
Here are our top three MLB picks and predictions for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Boston Red Sox (+120) @ New York Yankees (-142) | O/U 8 (-118/-104)
Yankees southpaw Nestor Cortes has some of the most drastic home/road splits of any starting pitcher in baseball. Cortes has a 1.84 ERA, a 57:6 K:BB ratio, and a .195 OBA in nine home starts, while his ERA inflates to 5.63 with a 41:13 K:BB ratio and a .295 OBA in nine road starts.
Though it was back in 2022, Cortes held the Red Sox scoreless over six innings in his lone start at home against them, and he has not lost to Boston in ten career appearances (four starts). Cortes will have to be sharp once again as he opposes AL Cy Young candidate Tanner Houck (Houck has the fifth-best odds to win the Cy Young at +1500 at DraftKings). Houck ranks sixth in WAR and led the AL in ERA prior to his last start, and should prove to be too much for a Yankees offense that has been held to four or fewer runs in six of their last eight games.
Though the Red Sox rank in the top five in wOBA and BABIP against southpaws in road games since the calendar turned to June, they were just held to two runs over six innings in a game started by Miami Marlins' lefty Trevor Rogers, who is 1-9 this season. That gives us confidence to back the Under, which has cashed in 52% of Boston’s games as road underdogs this season.
Tanner Houck, Nasty 85mph Slider. 😨
3rd K pic.twitter.com/G9KqgDTnv1
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 24, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-104)
Kansas City Royals (-194) @ Colorado Rockies (+162) | O/U 10.5 (-105/-115)
Bobby Witt Jr. and the Kansas City Royals begin a three-game series at the most hitter-friendly ballpark, Coors Field, and that has us excited to back the right-handed dominant Royals with a southpaw on the mound.
Witt Jr. has mashed southpaws to the tune of a .321/.339/.500 slash line, and faces Kyle Freeland, who has allowed a .333 batting average and .922 to right-handed batters this season. Though Freeland has odd splits with a 1.64 ERA at the hitter-friendly Coors Field and an 11.94 road ERA, but those numbers should eventually even out. And while Kansas City is just 1-4 in Cole Ragans’ last five starts, not much of that is his fault, as he has four quality starts in that span, and the team provided him with three or fewer runs of support three times.
Kansas City has covered the runline in 57.5% of its games following a loss, and while Colorado has the scheduling advantage coming off of a home series, we are not encouraged by its fifth-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.
MLB Pick: Royals -1.5 (-125)
Toronto Blue Jays (+122) @ Seattle Mariners (-144) | O/U 7.5 (+100/-122)
Kevin Gausman has been a "Jekyll and Hyde" pitcher ever since the calendar turned to June, based on the quality of competition. Against teams currently worse than .500, Gausman has allowed just two earned runs in 26 1/3 innings spanning his last four starts. However, Gausman has been rocked for 35 runs over 36 2/3 innings over his last seven starts against teams .500 or better, and that 8.59 ERA has us worried against the first-place Seattle Mariners.
Seattle's offense was scuffling with just one game scoring three-plus runs in its previous eight before yesterday's seven-run outburst. That should give the Mariners confidence against Gausman, who is overvalued after allowing just a .198 OBA and .630 OPS in 81 career at-bats to current Mariners hitters. Gausman's inability to show consistency against good teams is a big reason we are backing Seattle, as is Toronto’s 29th-ranked bullpen ERA (4.83) and 30th-ranked FIP (4.83), which Seattle should see plenty of if it can knock Gausman out of the game early.
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-144)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.