By the end of this weekend, all Major League Baseball teams will have 20 or less games remaining on their schedule, which puts into perspective how quickly the end of the regular season is approaching. For those in tight division and wild card races, every game won or lost from here out drastically shifts teams’ playoff odds going forward.
What is in store for today’s loaded 15-game MLB slate? Read on for our MLB best bets for Friday, September 6.
Friday’s Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Yankees (-144) at Chicago Cubs (+122) | O/U 7 (-115/-105)
The New York Yankees have lost three consecutive series and are 15-15 over their last 30 games while playing only two teams over .500 in that span.
New York gets lucky to avoid Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga in this series, but Chicago should still benefit from having lefty Jordan Wicks lined up to start the series opener. Yes, Wicks has made eight appearances and only one of his seven starts has been a quality start this year. But that should not matter against a Yankees lineup that has egregious splits versus right-handed and left-handed starting pitchers.
New York is 26 games over .500 (63-37) against right-handed starters, but six games under .500 (17-23) against southpaws. And while the Yankees have been a better road team than home team this season, they are still facing a Cubs squad that is 10-3 in their last 13 games while averaging 9.8 runs per game in that span. In addition, I do not trust Yankees righty Luis Gil in his first start since landing on the IL on August 21 with a lower back strain, especially if the organization is interested in managing his innings down the stretch.
Pick: Cubs ML (+122)
Cincinnati Reds (+142) at New York Mets (-168) | O/U 8 (-102/-120)
Sean Manaea might be the most effective pitcher in baseball recently that no one is talking about. While the lefty’s 3.52 ERA through five August starts does not jump off the page, he has pitched to a 2.42 ERA over his previous seven starts, which in that span includes matchups against the league’s top-two scoring teams (Diamondbacks and Orioles) in the second half of the season entering Thursday.
After limiting Baltimore to three hits over seven innings in a 4-3 win on August 21, Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said about Manaea, "It's just the unique angle. He's tall, across his body, kind of Chris Sale slot. He’s throwing a ton of strikes, and we just had a tough time getting hits against him."
Thomas Nestico beautifully illustrated what Manaea has accomplished since a slight mechanical switch in late July.
Cincinnati has scored four or fewer runs in 20 of its 23 losses in the second half of the season, and with the Mets going 52-29 in their last 81 games (+17.30 units/16% ROI), another low-scoring Reds game should be in order.
Pick: Reds Team Total Under 3.5 (-140)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+134) at Houston Astros (-158) | O/U 7.5 (-118/-104)
The Arizona Diamondbacks entered Thursday 30-13 since the All-Star Break, a half-game worse than the San Diego Padres for the best record in baseball in that span. But similar to the Yankees with our first pick, the Diamondbacks have struggled with left-handed pitching all year, and that is enough to sway us that the Astros moneyline odds present great value.
Arizona is 24-27 against left-handed starting pitchers, but is a much more successful 55-35 against righties. Now the Diamondbacks face one of the best lefties in the American League in Framber Valdez, who ranks in the top-fourth of the league in xERA, and the 92nd percentile in barrels. He is on pace for his second-best xERA (3.41) since his rookie year, and the Diamondbacks rank just 27th in hard-hit rate in road games against southpaws in road games since the start of August.
I also expect Houston, whose .581 winning percentage in the second half of the season entering Thursday led all AL teams, to continue to rake against Brandon Pfaadt, as he is overvalued after going 5-1 in his last seven starts since he received nearly eight runs per game of run support in that stretch.
Pick: Astros ML (-158)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.