As the dog days of September have arrived, more and more Major League Baseball teams are receiving deserved days off on Mondays and Thursdays, and today is no exception with a small nine-game slate. However, there is still plenty of days to scour among those nine games, and I have done the dirty work for you in assembling my top two most confident bets of the day.
Read on for our top MLB picks for Monday, September 9.
Monday's Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Miami Marlins (+210) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-255) | O/U 7.5 (-122/+100)
The Pittsburgh Pirates organization seems like they are backing off rookie phenom Paul Skenes’ workload with them out of contention down the stretch, and one can hardly blame them. However, oddsmakers are still over-inflating Pittsburgh’s odds in Skenes’ starts based on his performances from earlier in the season, but with the righty seemingly have a ceiling of six innings (he has recorded 18 or fewer outs in seven consecutive starts), the value lies in the first five innings.
Skenes has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of eight starts since the All-Star Break, with the only exception being when he allowed four runs over six innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Miami Marlins offense is nowhere near as talented as L.A.’s, even though the Marlins rank higher than the Dodgers in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in road games in the second half of the season.
Pittsburgh should find success offensively against Valente Bellozo, who has allowed six runs in two of his previous three starts. Pittsburgh ranks in the top half of the league in OPS and batting average in home games against righties since the All-Star Break. And considering the Pirates had cashed their first five innings Team Total Over in 31 of their last 54 home games entering Sunday (+8.60 units/14% ROI), I expect them to cover the run line through the first five innings behind their ace.
MLB Pick: Pirates -1.5 First Five Innings (+104)
Baltimore Orioles (+100) at Boston Red Sox (-118) | O/U 9.5 (-114/-106)
Boston’s playoff hopes are thin as it enters this week four games out of a wild card spot in the American League. And while the Red Sox are 32-51 against teams over .500, they are a good value play as small home favorites against an Orioles team that has not exactly set the world on fire of late.
Baltimore is just 24-24 since the All-Star Break (that is a worse winning percentage than the Oakland Athletics in that span, for reference), and now send one of its least reliable starting pitchers to the mound in this game. Cade Povich has the worst WAR (-0.8) of all Orioles starting pitchers, and has made just three quality starts in 12 tries. The Orioles are just 2-5 in his last seven starts (one of those wins were against the historically bad Chicago White Sox), and Baltimore needed 16 combined runs in those two wins to scratch out victories.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 9-3 in Brayan Bello’s 12 starts since the start of July. Perhaps the lone negative is that he has allowed a .309 BABIP in that span, but he also leads all Red Sox qualified starters with a 9.04 K/9 rate and a 3.52 xFIP. Bello has also induced an above average 1.73 GB/FB rate in that span, which will come in handy against the homer-happy Orioles, and his 6.5% barrel rate suggests he should do well to keep the ball in the yard tonight.
Baltimore had cost its moneyline backers 17.75 units (-17% ROI) in its last 69 games entering Sunday, and I am backing the more desperate Red Sox who look to make one last strong playoff push off of a series win against Chicago.
MLB Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-118)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.