Today’s MLB schedule features a full slate of games. After reviewing each game, I finally found my two favorite bets for the day.
Read the analysis and consider tailing my two MLB best bets below.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Mets vs. Athletics
The New York Mets will battle another familiar foe today. It’ll be Luis Severino on the mound for the Athletics today. Ultimately, Severino is still looking for his first win of the season. He’s 0-2 with a 4.74 ERA since leaving the Mets for the Athletics.
Severino has only struck out 18.5% of batters this season. He’s also allowed a .236 ISO and wOBA of .330 while allowing as many fly balls as ground balls so far this season.
Meanwhile, the Mets’ projected lineup has some power at the top of the order. Pete Alonso has hit a .444 ISO and wOBA of .518 against righties, while Starling Marte has delivered a .267 ISO and wOBA of .400 against righties. Additionally, the Mets have eight batters who have struck out no more than 20% of the time against righties throughout the season in the projected lineup. The Mets should show off some pop against their former teammate.
On the other hand, Kodai Senga will get the call for the Mets. Senga has struck out 30% of batters and has allowed just a .139 ISO and wOBA of .286 this season. He’s also induced 62.5% of ground balls and has limited fly balls and line drives to 16.7%. That said, he’ll take on an Athletics lineup that has collectively hit a .147 ISO against righties this season. Five batters in the Athletics’ lineup have hit a wOBA of no better than .292.
Let’s back the Mets in this rubber game.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (-142)
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
The Colorado Rockies have been getting good pitching out of lefty Kyle Freeland to start the year. He’ll get another crack on the mound today against the San Diego Padres.
Freeland is winless, yet he has an ERA of 3.79 and has allowed zero walks against the first 76 batters he has faced this season. Freeland has also held teams to a .095 ISO and wOBA of .268 with 53.3% of ground balls. His strikeouts are low and likely won’t improve against the Padres.
San Diego’s projected lineup has struck out 15% of the time. The Padres are aggressive. But they’re also not getting good contact. Instead, the Padres’ projected lineup has hit a .067 ISO and wOBA of .240 against lefties to begin the season. Freeland should be able to induce plenty of ground balls and earn easy outs, even if they’re not strikeouts.
On the other hand, Michael King will get the ball for the Padres. He was tremendous last year and is still trying to find his footing this year. He has a 4.05 ERA but is also 2-0 this season.
That said, he’s facing a Rockies lineup that has hit a .122 ISO and wOBA of .275 with 30.9% of strikeouts against righties. This same lineup has also walked just 5.6% of the time. I expect King to cruise by this Rockies lineup at home.
Freeland and King both have solid matchups on the mound tonight, so let’s back the under in this game.
Pick: Under 7.0 Runs (-102)
