There’s a special game in the MLB tonight! The Seattle Mariners and New York Mets will play in Williamsport, PA, in front of many little leaguers on ESPN. I’ve got a best bet for that game and one other matchup, and I’ve shared them below.
Read my breakdown of the top two MLB bets for today’s slate of games below.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants are set to throw Logan Webb for today’s game against the Tampa Bay Rays. Webb has been phenomenal this season. Overall, in the last month, he’s held his previous 129 batters to 14.3% of fly balls and has induced 56% of ground balls. He’s also kept walks to 5.4% and has struck out more than 22% of batters.
Ultimately, he’ll battle a Rays lineup that has only hit a .140 ISO and wOBA of .298 against righties over the last 30 days. Brandon Lowe and Junior Caminero have been red-hot against righties. However, the rest of the lineup hasn’t really done much over the last 30 days, analytically.
On the flip side, Ryan Pepiot will start for the Rays. Pepiot has really struggled against lefties as a right-handed pitcher. His last 51 lefties faced have hit a .333 ISO and wOBA of .406. Those lefties have also launched over 40% of fly balls and have walked 17.6% of the time.
For one, the Giants should have more lefties than righties in the lineup. Secondly, those five lefties have combined to hit a .309 wOBA. Rafael Devers and Jung Hoo Lee are two lefties who have done well against righties over the last month. Look for those two to spark the offense.
Let’s take the Giants at -152 on the moneyline.
Pick: Giants Moneyline (-152)
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Mets
We’ve got a fun pitching duel in the Little League World Series game in Williamsport, PA.
Clay Holmes will take the hill for the Mets. While his strikeouts aren’t high, he’s delivered in other ways. Over the last month, he’s induced close to 62% of ground balls and has allowed just 7.9% of fly balls. Yet, despite these numbers, he’s allowed a .373 BABIP. The luck should eventually get back in his favor.
That said, the Mariners have struggled to hit line drives against righties, earning just 20.2% of line drives as a projected lineup over the last 30 days. Look for Seattle to hit more grounders than they’re used to against Holmes.
Conversly, George Kirby is scheduled to pitch for the Mariners. Kirby has been absolutely lights out, holding his last 121 batters to a .064 ISO and wOBA of .231. Kirby has also issued 54.5% of ground balls and has allowed just 18.2% of line drives and 18.2% of fly balls. His strikeout rate is higher, and he’s only walked 6.6% of batters. The Mets won’t have it easy against Kirby.
I’m on the Under 8 (-105) for this one.
Pick: Under 8 Runs (-105)
