Most of the attention around Major League Baseball today will be centered around two high-profile series between American League teams. The Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians meet in a battle of first-place AL teams, while the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees duel for the sixth time in what is setting up to be an exciting race in the AL East throughout the summer.
Read on to find out which teams are involved in our top MLB picks for Wednesday, June 19.
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Wednesday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Boston Red Sox (+114) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-134) | O/U 8 (-112/-108)
Neither starting pitcher in tonight’s matchup has had much success against the opposing lineup. Red Sox righty Brayan Bello has allowed a .394/.439/.580 slash line in 66 combined at-bats to current Blue Jays hitters, while Gausman has been lit up for a .345/.387/.476 slash line in 87 combined at-bats against current Red Sox.
Red Sox leadoff man Jarren Duran has been a sparkplug for the offense, leading the team with 49 runs scored, seven more than the next closest teammate. Duran has scored at least one run in seven of the last nine games, and 10 of the previous 13, for a total of 17 through 16 June games. He should have plenty of chances to get on base and set the tone against Gausman, against whom he has a 1.400 career OPS in 10 at-bats, with four of his five hits going for extra bases. The Red Sox had also scored 91 combined runs in their last 11 wins, so expect another high-scoring affair if they can pull out the victory as underdogs.
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-112)
Houston Astros (-120) @ Chicago White Sox (+102) | O/U 7.5 (-102/-120)
Houston Astros righty Hunter Brown enters this start having not allowed an earned run in his last 13 innings, and has pitched to a 2.41 ERA over his last seven starts, while producing a K:BB ratio of better than 4:1 in that span. Five of Brown's six quality starts this season have come within his last five starts, and a lot of his success has come from relying on his secondary pitches more while lowering his four-seam fastball usage, as he has allowed just a .375 wOBA in June with that pitch, which RotoBaller's Corbin Young pointed out.
#Astros Hunter Brown lowered the 4-seam usage from 45.3% in April (.466 wOBA) to 38.5% in May (.391 wOBA) to 31.1% in June (.375 wOBA) before FRI start vs. DET.
?'?Throwing more sinkers AND cutters vs. RHH
?"?Five straight quality starts (19.4% K-BB%, 10.6% SwK before FRI) pic.twitter.com/DIoohFZcCe— Corbin (@corbin_young21) June 15, 2024
Brown should dominate a Chicago White Sox team that has lost nine consecutive series, and who ranks 25th or worse in batting average (.226), on-base percentage (.289), and strikeout rate (25.5%) since that downturn.
We are getting relatively good odds in a matchup that feels like a mismatch because White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet is toeing the rubber. The White Sox are 6-2 in Crochet’s last eight starts, which is no small feat considering they have just 20 wins on the season. But one thing Houston excels at is putting the ball in play against left-handed pitchers (it has struck out an MLB-low 15.5% of the time in that split), and we expect that to frustrate the young hurler, while also allowing the Astros to get to the bullpen early.
MLB Pick: Astros (-120)
Kansas City Royals (-176) @ Oakland Athletics (+148) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
The Kansas City Royals went 5-7 in the 12 games prior to Tuesday's series opener against the Oakland Athletics, but those 12 games were all against first-place teams (Dodgers, Yankees, Mariners, and Guardians), and the Oakland Athletics do not figure to provide nearly as much resistance.
Cole Ragans is on pace for the best strikeout rate (29.1%) and walk rate (7.4%) of his short three-year career, and also ranks near the top quarter of all pitchers (73rd percentile) in xERA. He faces an A's lineup that strikes out at the fifth-highest rate against southpaws (24.8%), and who ranks 27th or worse in batting average and slugging in that split. While Oakland ranks in the top-half of the league in slugging against left-handed pitchers, Ragans has allowed just a .330 slugging percentage all season, and an even more impressive .310 slugging to right-handed hitters.
Meanwhile, Kansas City should have plenty of offensive success against Luis Medina, who does not induce ground balls (31.4% ground ball rate), allows too much hard contact (43.1% hard-hit rate), and does not miss many bats (14.5% strikeout rate is well below the MLB average of 22.1%).
Kansas City is 29-14 against teams under .500, while the A's have won just four of 18 games against the AL Central. We expect a big win from the Royals, which would also clinch their first season series victory over the A’s since 2015.
MLB Pick: Royals -1.5 (-102)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.