Now that we are well past the Major League Baseball trade deadline, we should start to see odds for games rise as the contenders separate from the pretenders, and more teams begin to have nothing to play for down the stretch. That was the case on Monday night when the previously MLB-best New York Yankees were -355 moneyline favorites against the Chicago White Sox, and even New York’s -1.5 runline odds were -205. However, White Sox backers cashed a huge paydays after the team’s 12-2 upset, in which Chicago ended with a season-high in runs and hits (18).
Only five teams in baseball are 2-8 or worse or 8-2 or better in their last 10 games, so will we continue to take advantage of inflated odds compared to the league’s parity?
Read on to find out which teams are involved in our top MLB picks for Wednesday, August 14.
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Wednesday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kansas City Royals (-112) @ Minnesota Twins (-104) | O/U 8.5 (+102/-124)
Minnesota decided to make a switch yesterday from Bailey Ober starting to Louie Varland to give Ober one more day of rest, and as a result, I agree with the Royals being favored in this matchup despite being outscored by 15 runs in the first two games of the series.
Varland is the only starting pitcher in the Twins rotation with a negative WAR rating (-0.5) as he is 0-4 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in seven appearances. Varland has failed to record 15 outs in three of his last four appearances, so we should be seeing plenty of the Twins bullpen today. In addition, eight of Minnesota’s 15 hits went for extra bases yesterday, but considering Cole Ragans ranks in the 69th percentile or better in barrels, xERA, whiff percentage and strikeout rate, we do not expect the same power surge today.
It is difficult fading the Twins who are 18-2 in their last 20 home games against the Royals (including a 7-2 head-to-head record this season) with a +67 run differential in that span, but the downgrade from Ober to Varland on the mound is significant enough that Kansas City is the rightful and deserving favorite.
MLB Pick: Royals ML (-112)
Colorado Rockies (+180) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-215) | O/U 9 (-122/+100)
The Arizona Diamondbacks are an MLB-best 27-9 since July 3, which is 5.5 games better than the next best team in that span. Arizona owns a +84 run differential in that span while averaging 6.5 runs per game and belting an MLB-best 64 home runs.
We have little doubt that Arizona’s offensive success will continue against Colorado Rockies rookie Tanner Gordon, as opponents have averaged six runs per game in his five starts this year. However, we are most confident in a high-scoring game since Colorado faces the struggling Jordan Montgomery, who has pitched to an unsightly 8.14 ERA and .364 OBA in 10 home starts. Montgomery ranks in the sixth percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, and strikeout rate, so I expect the Over to continue to be profitable for both teams.
Entering Tuesday, the Over had cashed in 17 of Colorado’s last 29 road games (+4.95 units/16% ROI) and 42 of Arizona’s last 64 games overall (+19.70 units/28% ROI).
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-122)
Seattle Mariners (-142) @ Detroit Tigers (+120) | O/U 8 (-105/-115)
The Seattle Mariners were coming off a three-game sweep of the New York Mets, a series in which they collectively pitched to a 0.33 ERA in 27 innings, with a 28:7 K:BB ratio and allowed a .179 OBA and .506 opponent’s OPS. However, I am excusing the Mariners pitching staff for a poor outings against the Detroit Tigers yesterday in which they produced a season-high 21 hits and tied for a season-high with 15 runs.
Bryan Woo is one of the least heralded members of the Mariners rotation, but he has made consecutive quality starts in August, one of which was against these very Tigers. Woo earned a no-decision after allowing Detroit to score three runs on five hits in 6 2/3 innings, and he tied a season-high with seven strikeouts. Perhaps even more encouraging than the strikeouts were that he allowed one or fewer walks for the 12th time in 13 starts, and he induced 10 ground balls (his second-most of the season).
Detroit ranks dead-last in batting average and is 29th in OBP, OPS, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching since July 15, and its team total Under had cashed in 49 of its last 90 games entering Tuesday (-13.45 units/-13% ROI).
MLB Pick: Tigers Team Total Under 3.5 (-125)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.