As we continue through this first week of September, several teams are losing ground in what were once tight division races. Only one of the six division races are separated by four or fewer games (AL East), and even the AL wild card race has loosened a bit, as the Boston Red Sox have fallen 4.5 games out of the final spot in the American League (they are now tied with the Detroit Tigers). However, the National League wild card race should have plenty of excitement down the stretch, as two NL East teams (the Braves and Mets) are separated by just a half-game entering Wednesday.
Read on to find out which teams are involved in our top MLB picks for Wednesday, September 4.
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Wednesday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chicago White Sox (+260) @ Baltimore Orioles (-320) | O/U 8.5 (-104/-118)
The Baltimore Orioles ballooned to whopping -470 moneyline favorites for their series opener against the Chicago White Sox, which actually seemed like somewhat of a bargain, considering Chicago went on to drop a 20th straight game that was started by Chris Flexen, now an MLB record for a team’s most consecutive losses in a season started by one pitcher.
Chicago is now the first team since 1900 with three losing streaks of 12-plus games and while I cannot get behind backing Baltimore’s steep -300 odds to win outright, there is room to get creative from a runline perspective.
In a staff headlined by Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin, Albert Suarez has been an unsung hero with all the injuries the Orioles have dealt with in their rotation. Suarez leads all Orioles starters in WAR (2.6), has allowed two or fewer earned runs in five consecutive starts, and just finished an August where he pitched to a 1.97 ERA and a .233 OBA.
While laying the -1.5 runs with Baltimore at -140 odds at FanDuel does not break the bank, I am opting for the alternate run line of -2.5 that pays plus-money odds, considering the Orioles have won the first two games of this series by 19 combined runs.
MLB Pick: Orioles -2.5 (+112)
Washington Nationals (-138) @ Miami Marlins (+118) | O/U 8 (-115/-105)
The Miami Marlins are one of two MLB teams that have fewer than 10 wins against left-handed starting pitchers (9-39), as the historically bad Chicago White Sox are the only team worse in that split.
Miami faces MacKenzie Gore, who has allowed two earned runs and pitched to a 10:1 K:BB ratio in his last 12 innings while facing the Yankees and Braves lineups. By comparison, a Marlins offense that had slashed .230/.287/.356 with a 22.4% strikeout rate and .126 OPS against left-handed pitchers entering Tuesday should seem like a walk in the park.
Miami has gone nine games without losing back-to-back games since a five-game losing streak from August 19-24, but today’s starting pitcher, Valente Bellozo, ranks in the third percentile or worse in xERA, barrels, hard-hit rate, and ground ball rate. Miami miraculously is 4-1 in his Bellozo’s last five starts, but that is not sustainable given those poor numbers.
MLB Pick: Nationals ML (-138)
Minnesota Twins (-118) @ Tampa Bay Rays (+100) | O/U 8.5 (+100/-122)
Minnesota had been scuffling a bit, as Monday’s 5-4 series-opening win over Tampa Bay was its first three-game winning streak since August 15-17. It has its offense to blame for the recent struggles, as injuries are catching up with them in a big way.
The Twins lineup has been without Byron Buxton, Manuel Margot, and Carlos Correa (who are all on the IL), while Max Kepler was scratched from Monday’s game with knee soreness. Meanwhile, the Rays have cashed their team total Under in 74 of their last 129 games (+14.25 units).
I would play this total down to eight runs, but we are getting an extra half-run worth of value at FanDuel.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-122)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.