Monday’s Major League Baseball slate starts at 6:35 p.m. ET. It features 13 games. Two Moneyline selections are the most enticing bets on the slate. Check out our top MLB picks & predictions below.
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Monday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Pittsburgh Pirates (-102) at Phillies (-114) | O/U 8.5 (-106/-114)
Aaron Nola pitching like someone who belongs in a Major League rotation feels like a distant memory. He had a 3.57 ERA in 2024, bouncing back from a 4.46 ERA in 2023. However, Nola had a 6.01 ERA in 17 starts last season and a 5.58 ERA in 16 starts this season.
Nola’s ERA estimators are much better, but the veteran righty has a track record of pitching to his ERA estimators. There appears to be nothing fluky about how poorly he’s pitched since last season.
Meanwhile, Braxton Ashcraft is spinning it. According to FanGraphs, he has logged the following stats in 16 starts spanning 96.2 innings this season:
- 7 wins
- 10 quality starts
- 3.07 ERA
- 2.88 xERA
- 3.18 xFIP
- 3.21 SIERA
- 1.09 WHIP
- 5.6% walk rate
- 27.3% strikeout rate
- 13.2% SwStr%
- 30.5% CSW%
- 105 stuff+
- 106 location+
- 108 pitching+
Pittsburgh has a massive starting pitching advantage.
The Pirates also have an offensive advantage. The Phillies are 23rd in wRC+ (96) versus righties in 2026, and the Pirates are second in wRC+ (114) versus righties.
The Phillies are in better form over the previous 30 days, but the pitching advantage and the larger sample of both teams’ work against righties tilts the scales toward taking the slight underdog Pirates on the Moneyline tonight.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-102)
San Diego Padres (+130) at Cubs (-154) | O/U 11.5 (-114/-106)
Griffin Canning will get the ball for the Padres tonight, and he’s been a disaster this season. The 30-year-old righty has a 7.38 ERA, 5.19 xERA, 4.50 xFIP and 4.69 SIERA in 10 appearances (eight starts) this season, lasting 42.2 innings.
Unsurprisingly, given how poorly Canning has pitched, the Padres haven’t enjoyed much team success in his starts. The Friars have lost six of Canning’s eight starts, with one of their wins coming in his first start for them on May 3rd.
Shota Imanaga is having a down year by his standards, as evidenced by his 4.40 ERA. However, Imanaga’s 3.66 xERA, 3.97 xFIP and 3.79 SIERA in his 16 starts this season are more encouraging. The veteran lefty has bounced between overperforming and underperforming his ERA estimators. Imanaga’s ERA estimators should carry significant weight.
San Diego’s bullpen is one of the best in the Majors, ranking third in ERA (3.24). Chicago’s bullpen is 12th in ERA (3.84), though. The gap between those ERAs is far less stark than the difference between Canning’s and Imanaga’s ERAs.
The Friars and Cubbies have been top-10 offenses over the last month. In the previous 30 days, San Diego is tied for sixth in wRC+ (108); Chicago is fourth in wRC+ (112). It’s a small offensive advantage for the hosts.
Another split is even more favorable for the Cubs. Chicago is eighth in wRC+ (108) versus righties this season; San Diego is 28th in wRC+ (83) against lefties. Finally, the Padres are 24th in wRC+ (87) on the road; the Cubs are fourth in wRC+ (117) at home. The Cubs are justifiably chalky favorites to win tonight, but a -154 line isn’t too chalky to warrant wagering on the favorites.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-154)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.