Monday’s Major League Baseball slate starts at 1:05 p.m. ET for Labor Day. It features 11 games. A run line pick and a team total are the most enticing bets on the slate. Check out our top MLB picks & predictions below.
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Monday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Atlanta Braves (+141) at Phillies (-171) | O/U 8.0 (+141/-171)
According to FanGraphs, Grant Holmes has a 2.66 ERA in 13 road starts spanning 64.1 innings this season, and Jesus Luzardo has a 4.52 ERA in 13 home starts in 2026, totaling 77.2 innings. At a blush, getting the Braves at plus money might seem appealing when only looking at the ERA splits on the road and at home for Holmes and Luzardo, respectively.
Of course, ERA is only scratching the surface, and while Holmes has been lucky, Luzardo has been unlucky. Holmes has a 4.38 xFIP in his road tilts, and Luzardo has a 3.01 xFIP in his home turns. The underlying data is much better for Philadelphia’s lefty than Atlanta’s righty.
Digging deeper, Luzardo’s home ERA is inflated by a few early-season disasters, allowing six earned runs in six innings on March 29th, five earned runs in 4.2 innings on April 10th and eight earned runs in 5.1 innings on April 15th. Luzardo has cooked with gas at home lately. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in seven out of nine home starts since May.
The Phillies should have an offensive edge, too. The Braves have a 94 wRC+ against lefties, and the Phillies have a 92 wRC+ against righties in 2026. However, Atlanta has only a 90 wRC+ on the road, and Philadelphia has a 104 wRC+ at home this season. The Braves have an 83 wRC+ over the previous 30 days, and the Phillies have a 99 wRC+ over the same period.
The Phillies are justifiably chalky Moneyline favorites - too chalky to bet on. That said, getting +125 odds to lay 1.5 runs is appealing.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+125)
New York Mets (+100) at Marlins (-121) | O/U 8.0 (-103/-121)
Jonah Tong will toe the rubber for the Mets today. The 23-year-old righty’s 3.60 ERA in three relief appearances totaling 10 innings for the Mets this year doesn’t align with his 4.02 xERA, 5.91 xFIP or 5.63 SIERA. He’s also logged a 14.9% strikeout rate and 14.9% walk rate this season in those relief appearances.
Tong has been exceptionally lucky. Even with this year’s good luck factored in, Tong has a disastrous 6.28 ERA, 4.62 xERA, 4.64 xFIP and 4.60 SIERA in five career starts and three relief appearances over 28.2 innings for the Mets since getting his first crack at the Majors last season.
Tong hasn’t pitched well in Triple-A this season - 4.54 ERA, 5.36 xERA and 4.98 xFIP in 23 starts. Tong is backed by a bullpen that is merely slightly better than average, as the Mets rank 12th in bullpen ERA (3.75) this season.
The Marlins don’t have an elite offense. Still, six of their projected starters have recorded at least a 98 wRC+ against righties since 2024, and only one has fallen short of an 89 wRC+. Finally, according to FantasyPros, loanDepot park ranks tied for fifth in park factor for runs (1.058). Miami should clear the low bar of scoring at least four runs in their hitter-friendly ballpark tonight.
Pick: Marlins Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-135)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.