The American League Championship Series (ALCS) continues today with Game 5 between the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays at Progressive Field. Tampa Bay tied the series up at 2-2 with a 7-3 win over Cleveland yesterday. That, of course, does not mean backing the Rays with our best MLB picks for this game.
But I have a couple of ideas for the best MLB bets of the day. Here are my picks.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
First Five Innings Under 3.5 Runs (-114)
My first inclination was to go with the over after seeing the Rays' lineup wake up yesterday and because Parker Messick has not been great in the postseason. Not that he's been bad. But he’s only pitched 11.2 innings across three postseason appearances, giving up 12 hits and seven runs (four earned).
With Drew Rasmussen giving up a pair of runs in his start versus Cleveland in Game 1, this looked like a game destined for over 3.5 runs (+108) within five innings.
But then I took a closer look at how these two did against today’s opponent during the regular season. On July 6th, Messick held the Rays to six hits and one earned run across 7.2 innings. As for Rasmussen, he lasted seven innings in a July 26th outing against Cleveland, holding them to just one hit and no runs.
I'm a little concerned about Messick's 1.71 WHIP in the postseason. But other than yesterday's 11-hit explosion, the Rays have struggled at the plate. The under for this market is 3-1 through the first four games. It will be 4-1 after today.
Over 6.5 Runs (+100)
How can I recommend the under through the first five innings but then the over for the game? The answer to that question is fairly easy to explain. The starting pitchers have done a solid job through the first five innings of each game, allowing more than four runs between them in just one game.
But the relievers did not perform as well. Of the 29 runs scored in this series through Game 4, 17 of them came in the sixth inning or later. With Cleveland going with a bullpen day on the mound yesterday, there is a chance the Guardians’ bullpen will be tired today.
If Messick gets pulled early, the Rays could get the advantage they need to steal a win. But at least it will open the door for a few more runs, pushing the final score past this somewhat low total.
