I've got a 2-pack of plus money full game ML plays on this Tuesday evening, just one week before everyone gets a slight reprieve with the All-Star Break. It's not every day that you see a division leader at 15 games over 0.500 as +145 underdogs on the moneyline, but that's exactly the opportunity that's presented tonight. While that means that Paul Skenes is on the opposing pitcher’s mound, I don't think that price is quite justified over the course of the full game. We've also got an AL team sitting just 1.0 game back of 3rd place in the league at plus money against a starting pitcher that I don't believe in, who has been leaking oil down the stretch. It's always fun to take the better team at plus money, and I think we have two opportunities to do so here tonight.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise stated)
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
While Paul Skenes is still undeniably one of the top handful of pitchers in the game right now and for the foreseeable future, he has some blemishes on his radar this year and hasn't quite displayed the same dominance that we've seen from him in previous years. He's fresh off his worst outing of the season, surrendering 7 ER over 4 IP, and he's allowed 4+ ER in five of his starts this season. For reference, he allowed 4+ ER in just 5 of his starts in 2024 and 2025 combined. While most of his underlying metrics still suggest that he's still been pretty elite, his offspeed run value has dropped off a cliff, currently sitting in the 17th percentile. His numbers also suggest that he's being hit harder than he has been in previous seasons, as his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are much closer to league average. His ground ball rate has also dropped below average, which has increased the damage done on his pitches when they get squared up.
The Braves will counter with Hurston Waldrep, who will be making just his 3rd start of the season. Though it's obviously a very small sample size, his ground ball rate has been astronomically high, currently sitting above 70%. Pairing that with a barrel rate and hard-hit rate which would both grade out in the top quartile of all pitchers, and you get a stellar xBA which falls just shy of the 90th percentile at 0.203. Those numbers are pretty reflective of his performance last year, where he posted a season-long ERA of 2.88 with a 96th percentile barrel rate and an 82nd percentile ground ball rate. While I don't think Waldrep necessarily outduels Skenes, I think he can keep this game close as the ball gets handed over to the bullpens.
When it comes to the bullpens, the Braves have the best in baseball. They lead the majors in both WHIP and ERA, and rank top-5 in terms of walks allowed. The Pirates, on the other hand, rank bottom-9 in both ERA and WHIP, with an ERA over a full run higher than the Braves and a WHIP nearly 0.30 points higher. Offensively, it could actually be argued that the Pirates have been better all-around at the plate than the Braves this season, but the Braves are certainly among the best offenses in baseball, and the Pirates offensive ceiling is obviously capped without the services of Oneil Cruz. I see this game following a very similar script to when I gave out the Dodgers at plus money over the Pirates on a Paul Skenes start, where the game is very close through the first 5-6 innings, but then the Pirates bullpen eventually blows the game. I'll take the Braves at this price as one of the best teams in baseball with the best bullpen in baseball every single time.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (+145 at Bet365)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
Taj Bradley had a really nice start to the season, but he has really imploded over the past few months. After posting a 2.85 ERA through April, he allowed 7 ER in just 15 IP in May. His performances got even worse in June, as he allowed 17 ER through 27.2 IP for a sky-high ERA of 5.53. His underlying numbers are pretty reflective of that and suggest that he's been getting hit hard. He has an 18th percentile barrel rate and an average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, which both grade out below the 10th percentile. What's extra concerning is that he does not keep the ball on the ground, evidenced by his 12th percentile ground ball rate, and he allows walks at a 10% clip.
He'll be up against Guardians southpaw Joey Cantillo, who has a respectable 3.86 ERA over 18 starts this season. Cantillo has great offspeed and breaking pitches, which grade out in the 72nd and 89th percentiles in terms of run value, respectively. He generates whiffs at a rate that puts him among the top quartile of pitchers, and both his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity rank among the top third of all pitchers. I value Cantillo as a league-average starting pitcher, which is more than I can say about Taj Bradley right now.
Similar to the previous game, I give the Guardians a significant advantage when it comes to the bullpen. Minnesota ranks dead-last in the MLB in terms of bullpen ERA at 5.28, and their 1.54 WHIP ranks 2nd-worst. Meanwhile, Cleveland ranks top-10 with a bullpen ERA nearly a run and a half lower at 3.80. They also have debatably the best relief pitcher in the American League, debatably, right now in Cade Smith, who currently leads the bigs with 26 saves.
Offensively, I will concede the better unit to the Twins, mostly by default, because the Guardians have been extremely poor on the offensive side this season, especially without perennial MVP candidate Jose Ramirez in the lineup. But again, I don't think the offensive advantage is enough to overcome the pitching disparity in this one. I'll take the Guardians as a team that is consistently underrated by the market at plus money on the full-game ML this evening.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline (+100 at FanDuel)
