Both New York teams will be sending out lefties this evening, and I don’t particularly believe in either of them. Carlos Rodon gets his first start since the end of June for a Yankees offense that is absolutely lost at the plate, and a vastly overperforming Zac Thornton gets the start for a Mets team that doesn’t have much to play for against a hot Padres team that has everything to play for. As such, I’m fading both New York teams in slightly different ways with my MLB picks this evening.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starter Shane Baz has righted the ship since a tough start to the season, when his ERA was around 4.50 through the month of May. Since the calendar flipped to June, Baz has allowed more than three earned runs in just two of his 13 starts. He faces a Yankees team that has been struggling in the worst way to find any sort of offensive production.
In 28 games since the All-Star break, the Yankees have failed to score more than three runs in 19 of them or more than four runs in 22 of them. I don’t see that turning around anytime soon, as they’re still without Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Cody Bellinger. Ben Rice is also in the middle of a massive slump.
Meanwhile, Carlos Rodon will make his first start with the Yankees since the end of June. While his season-long numbers look pretty good, his xERA suggests he’s overperformed. His 1.25 WHIP is also a little bit concerning and is a direct result of his insanely high 13.4% walk rate.
Rodon’s fastball velocity is down, and both his average exit velocity and chase rate rank among the bottom third of all pitchers. Frankly, I’m not even sure how Rodon’s ERA isn’t higher, as he has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his nine starts this season.
The Yankees starter wasn’t exactly sharp when he initially returned from injury this season, allowing five combined earned runs in eight total innings between his first two games back. We should see something similar to that this evening.
Offensively, while the Orioles don’t quite compare in terms of raw slugging, they get on base at a far higher clip than the Yankees, as Baltimore ranks 10th and New York ranks in the bottom five in on-base percentage (OBP). Because of that, Baltimore also ranks ahead of New York in terms of OPS despite the difference in slugging.
The Orioles rank third in walks, which could be a huge issue considering the walk issues I outlined with Rodon. And the Orioles hit for a higher average as a team. I’m focused on the first five innings because the Yankees have an overwhelming advantage in their bullpen, but in every other aspect, I give the Orioles a slight edge. They should lead this one after five innings.
Pick: Orioles First Five Innings Moneyline (+108 at BetRivers)
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
The Mets will send out rookie southpaw Zac Thornton this evening, whose 2.78 ERA is not nearly indicative of the pitcher he has been. Thornton’s xERA (4.85) is two runs higher than his actual ERA and ranks below the 20th percentile. He does not miss bats, as evidenced by a 35th percentile chase rate, a 10th percentile strikeout rate and a seventh-percentile whiff rate.
Thornton has also been hit really hard, with an average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate that all rank among the bottom third of all pitchers. His groundball rate also sits below the 50th percentile, which is absolutely not what you want from a pitcher who doesn’t miss bats and gets hit hard. Put all that together, and his xBA ranks in just the 11th percentile at 0.271.
To be fair, Robbie Ray’s underlying numbers don’t exactly jump off the page either, but they are better than Thornton’s. His xERA is also much closer to his actual ERA than Thornton’s, and the run value on his pitches seems to suggest he’s been pretty unlucky this season.
Ray’s breaking pitches grade out in the top quartile of all pitchers in terms of run value, and his offspeed pitches grade out phenomenally, in the 95th percentile in terms of run value. Put all that together, and Ray’s overall pitching run value grades out just shy of the 70th percentile.
Offensively, the Padres have the upper hand in nearly every statistical category except for home runs and slugging rate, where they trail the Mets by 0.001. Otherwise, they have a higher batting average, OBP and OPS, with more runs scored.
Similarly, the Padres have a slightly better bullpen, with an ERA 0.12 points lower, and they have the Mason Miller trump card, whereas the Mets have the incredibly unreliable Devin Williams. They’re all small advantages for the Padres, but over the course of the full game, it’s enough to get me to play them on the Moneyline at anything under -120.
Pick: Padres Moneyline (-112 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
