Although we typically get a 15-game slate on Fridays, we only have 14 games tonight. That’s because the Mets and Phillies are out in London preparing for their two-game series over Saturday and Sunday. Still, there are plenty of exciting MLB player prop bets to choose from. Let’s get right to it! Here are our top MLB player prop bet picks for Friday’s slate of games.
Friday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Spencer Steer Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Spencer Steer has crushed lefties over the last 30 days. The Reds outfielder has hit a .391 ISO and wOBA of .505 with just 14.3% of strikeouts against lefties over the previous month.
Steer is facing Justin Steele of the Cubs, a lefty, allowing a .205 ISO and wOBA of .336 to his first 125 righty batters. He’s also allowed 27% of line drives and has induced below 40% of ground balls against righties this season.
Meanwhile, Steer has hit 47.4% of fly balls with only 31.6% of ground balls in the last 30 days against lefties. He’s also smacked a 47.4% hard contact rate with a 10.5% barrel percentage.
Steele has allowed 49.4% of hard contact to righties and has only earned 8.3% of swinging strikes. Let’s back Steer to add at least two total bases tonight.
Justin Steele Under 5.5 Ks (-122)
Let’s stay in the Cubs-Reds game.
Steele has only struck out 22.5% of batters this season. However, his rate is worse against righties, where he’s struck out only 21.6% of batters.
Meanwhile, the Reds should have a lineup with at least eight righties in it. Those eight righties have only struck out 13.6% of the time against lefties over the last 30 days. Only Elly De La Cruz has struck out more than 19% of the time against lefties in that time frame.
Again, Steele has earned just an 8.3% swinging strike and has added only 17.1% of whiffs. He’s also given up a high ISO and wOBA to righties this season. Therefore, he might not even last more than five innings in tonight’s game.
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-155)
Griffin Canning will take the hill for the Angels against the Astros. Canning is a righty pitcher who has allowed a .266 ISO and wOBA of .397 to 160 lefties this season. He’s also earned just 16.2% of strikeouts and has given up 34.2% of fly balls with only 35.9% of ground balls induced.
Meanwhile, Yordan Alvarez has smashed a .313 ISO and wOBA of .451 against his last 73 righties. He’s also struck out only 13.7% of the time against righties while hitting 33.3% of fly balls in that time against righties.
In addition, he’s hit only 29.8% of ground balls and has smashed a 49.1% of hard contact rate against righties. He’s also got a .346 BABIP, which is one of the best rates on the Astros against righties over the last month.
I’d take Kyle Tucker in this spot as well. But it’s probably unlikely he plays at this point. So, stick with Alvarez as the main lefty tonight. Canning has been awful against them all year long.
