I don’t know about all of you, but it felt like an eternity without regular-season baseball over the last four days. I’m so glad we’re back with a full slate of games tonight.
Here are three MLB player props you’ll want to consider to start the second half of the season.
Friday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
CJ Abrams Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Abrams has an ISO of .310 and wOBA of .479 over the last 30 days against righties. The left-handed lead-off hitter has also struck out just 13.9% of the time against righties and has a 56.2% hard-hit rate with a fly-ball rate over 29%. He also a 25 LD% and has limited ground balls to under 40%.
Abrams will take on Frankie Montas of the Reds. Montas, a righty, has allowed a .364 ISO and wOBA of .401 to his last 64 lefties. He has only struck out 18.8% of lefties in the previous 30 days and has allowed a 38.6 LD%.
Abrams has been incredible against righties, specifically in the last 30 days. Let’s take him to add at least two total bases in tonight’s game.
Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Ks (+120)
The Cardinals will throw Gray to begin the second half of the season. Gray is a righty who has struck out more than 30% of batters this season.
Gray’s rate has dropped slightly over the last 30 days. He has struck out 26.8% of batters over the previous month. That’s still a super high rate.
Gray will take on a Braves lineup that has collectively struck out 26.3% against righties over the last 30 days. The Braves projected lineup has six batters who have struck out at least 27.7% of the time against righties. Gray is in line for a big day in the strikeout column.
Chris Flexen Under 3.5 Ks (+100)
The Royals do not tend to be the most patient hitters against righties. We’ll use that to our advantage tonight.
The Royals will face Flexen, who has only struck out 15.9% of batters over the last month. Flexen can’t really get strikeouts against either right-handed or left-handed hitters at a consistent rate.
The Royals have only struck out 18.2% of the time against righties. In KC’s projected lineup, only two batters have struck out more than 17.9% against righties in the last 30 days. Furthermore, the Royals have walked under 5% of the time against righties. They’re being aggressive early in counts and will likely do the same against Flexen.
Flexen throws strikes. He’s only walked 7.9% of batters over the last 30 days. Therefore, let’s back Flexen to throw Under 3.5 strikeouts in tonight’s game against the Royals. He only has two targets, Salvador Perez and Maikel Garcia. Perez has a .229 ISO against righties in the last month. That doesn’t look good for Flexen, either.
