MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (5/11)

A small six-game Major League Baseball slate gives us less options to choose from, but we have still identified three solid player prop bets.

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Thursday.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Thursday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Christian Walker Over RBI vs. Giants

There have not been many hitters hotter over the last week than Arizona Diamondbacks’ first baseman Christian Walker. Walker entered Thursday ranked seventh in the majors in OPS over the last seven days (1.171), and he is seeing the ball well as only one player ahead of him has struck out fewer times in that span (Walker has three strikeouts). Walker’s 28 RBIs are tied for tenth in the majors and are nine more than anyone else in the lineup. Walker has been especially hot, with nine RBI in May. And he is confident in any situation. As per Inside Edge, entering Thursday, Walker was slugging .520 in two-strike counts this season (fourth-best in the majors).

He now faces San Francisco Giants righty Alex Cobb, against whom he is 6-for-14 with a 1.244 OPS. Cobb ranks in the 13th percentile in hard-hit percentage, and we expect Walker to take advantage of that. The Over is 6-2-2 in Arizona’s last ten games against divisional opponents, and we expect Walker to be a part of its offensive production again.

Bet: Walker Over 0.5 RBI (+135 at DraftKings)

Brady Singer Under earned runs vs. White Sox

Kansas City Royals righty Brady Singer is 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA in nine career appearances (eight starts) against the Chicago White Sox. However, White Sox hitters have had difficulty generating offense against Singer recently, slashing .253/.266/.318 in 79 combined at-bats. The most troubling number for Chicago backers is that just three of their 20 hits went for extra bases. Singer has also issued just one walk in that span, so quick innings with limited rallies are likely in store for the Kansas City Royals righty.

White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson is responsible for seven of the 20 hits against Singer (the rest of Chicago's hitters are 13-for-66 against him). Still, he is just 5-for-32 since returning from the IL, and we do not expect him to be the normal sparkplug that he is just yet for this lineup. Singer has recorded 18 outs just once in his last five starts, but we expect a strong performance here, especially since his career winning percentage is .543 and ERA is 3.96 in day starts compared to .381 and 4.90 at night.

Kansas City has won five of its last six home meetings against Chicago, and with the Under going 23-11-1 in the 35 previous head-to-head meetings overall, we are confident that Singer will support these trends with another strong outing. We would play this number down to 2.5 earned runs when it becomes available at DraftKings.

Bet: Singer Under earned runs allowed (-160 at DraftKings)

Yu Darvish Over earned runs allowed vs. Twins

The San Diego Padres are curiously low favorites (-120 ML odds) against the Minnesota Twins with their ace on the mound, especially since the opposing pitcher, Bailey Ober, was not in the rotation to start the season. That suggests that oddsmakers believe Darvish will not have his best stuff, despite allowing one earned run in four of six starts.

Darvish's two road starts this season have been worrisome for different reasons. Against the New York Mets, he was tagged for five earned runs in 6 1/3 innings and issued five walks in his next road start against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Twins rank 28th in wOBA and wRC+ over the last seven days, but we expect an offensive bounceback from a lineup that ranks fourth in the American League in BABIP in home games.

Minnesota has won seven of its last nine home meetings with San Diego and is a solid contrarian play to provide a solid offensive effort against Darvish, especially with the righty ranking in the 26th percentile in chase rate.

Bet: Darvish Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-105 at DraftKings)

Take a look at our other best bets for Thursday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.