The beauty about Major League Baseball is that something happens seemingly every day that we have never seen before. From a player prop perspective, that was true of Kyle Schwarber, as OptaSTATS explained on X.
There have been 2 games in MLB history where a player had:
6+ RBI
5+ times on base
4+ XBH
3+ HR
a leadoff HR
a HR in the 9th or laterBoth were by Kyle Schwarber within the last 30 days. pic.twitter.com/GtkkfKdkHy
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) September 4, 2024
Elsewhere, New York Mets slugger Francisco Lindor may not win the MVP award because of Shohei Ohtani’s historic season, but he still joined Alex Rodriguez and Ernie Banks as the only shortstops with at least five 30-home run seasons in their careers.
What players do I have my eye on among today’s small nine-game MLB slate?
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets and picks for Thursday, September 5.
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Thursday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Pablo Lopez Under 1.5 earned runs (+130)
The Minnesota Twins have been scuffling lately, going 5-11 in their last 16 games and scoring four or fewer runs nine times in that span. The one constant among their myriad of injuries to some of their best sluggers has been starting pitcher Pablo Lopez, who has not allowed a run in 20 2/3 innings spanning his last three starts.
The Twins are 3-1 in Lopez’s last four starts, and in their one loss in that span (6-5 in 10 innings to the Texas Rangers), Lopez pitched six scoreless innings while allowing six hits.
Lopez now faces a Tampa Bay Rays team that has scored three or fewer runs in 10 of their last 16 games. Tampa Bay entered Wednesday ranked 25th in wRC+, 24th in ISO, and 28th in OPS in the second half of the season, so its offensive struggles have gone on much longer than the last two and a half weeks.
The Rays entered Wednesday having cashed their team total Under in 74 of their last 129 games (+14.25 units/10% ROI), and we expect Lopez to do his part in limiting the sputtering offense again.
Pablo López has overcome a blister issue, according to Rocco Baldelli.
With a 20 2/3 scoreless innings streak, he's the hottest pitcher in baseball ?"? @Twins | #MNTwins
?"- https://t.co/6YbqEWG3tX pic.twitter.com/CFN7Qdhumw— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) September 3, 2024
Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 runs (+140)
Lately it has been somewhat of a “Death, Taxes, and Corbin Carroll will score a run” feel with the Arizona Diamondbacks slugger lately. Carroll has been on a run-scoring spree, crossing the plate at least once in six consecutive games (nine total runs in that span) and 32 of his last 39 games dating back to late July. Carroll has not scored in consecutive games just once in that span, and not only has he gotten on base at an elite clip over the last seven days (entering Wednesday), but his .438 on-base percentage was impressively complimented by a .931 slugging percentage.
In that seven day span, Carroll plated himself four times with home runs, and seven of his 12 hits overall went for extra bases, so he frequently put himself in scoring position and did not have to rely on his elite speed to steal bases (of which he has 26 this year).
Carroll backers are still getting great value on his odds to score a run today as he faces one of the sport’s best southpaws in Blake Snell. Opponents have scored three or fewer runs in nine of Snell’s last 10 starts, but the southpaw also issued a troubling 16 walks in 38 1/3 innings in August. Plus, the Diamondbacks are no ordinary offense, as their 275 runs scored entering Wednesday were 43 more than the next-highest scoring team.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.