This is the first weekend where Major League Baseball coincides with college football and the NFL. But with so many tight division and wild card races, excitement around MLB should continue through the end of the regular season.
What player props do we have our eye on for a loaded slate of games to start the weekend?
Read on for our Top MLB Player Prop Bet picks for Saturday.
Saturday's Best MLB Player Prop Bet Picks
Let’s dive into our top MLB player prop bet picks on Saturday’s slate of games.
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Zach Eflin to record a win
Zach Eflin has to be considered one of the most important trade deadline acquisitions for any team, as he has personally won all five of his starts in an Orioles uniform. Baltimore has outscored its opponents by 21 runs in those five starts while not allowing more than one run in any of the previous three. That stretch includes a 4-1 win over Eflin’s former team, the Rays, when he allowed four hits over seven scoreless innings, while striking out seven.
Tampa Bay has only had one three-game winning streak since July 30 and has only won back-to-back games once since August 22. The Rays rank dead-last in that majors in OPS and ISO, and have the AL’s worst strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since July 26. Thus, a great way to get more value out of Baltimore’s steep -185 moneyline odds is to back Eflin to record the victory. And if no odds pop up for him to record the win before first pitch, I would back his Under 1.5 earned runs at -110 odds.
Corbin Carroll Over runs (+135)
Lately it has been somewhat of a "Death, Taxes, and Corbin Carroll will score a run" feel with the Arizona Diamondbacks slugger lately. Carroll has been on a run-scoring spree, crossing the plate at least once in seven of the previous eight games (10 total runs in that span) and 33 of his last 41 games dating back to late July. Carroll has not scored in consecutive games just once in that span, and not only has he gotten on base at an elite clip over the last seven days, but his .441 on-base percentage was impressively complimented by a .679 slugging percentage.
In the last 15-day span entering Friday, Carroll has plated himself five times with home runs, and nine of his 17 hits overall went for extra bases, so he frequently put himself in scoring position and did not have to rely on his elite speed to steal bases (of which he has 26 this year).
The Diamondbacks had cashed the Over in 57 of their last 88 games entering Friday (+25.75 units/26% ROI), and I expect Carroll to play a part in helping that trend continue today.
Logan Webb Under 4.5 strikeouts (-145)
Is Giants ace Logan Webb wearing down at the end of the season? It is fair to wonder that, even though he entered his last start ranked 10th with a 2.70 ERA in the second half of the season, as he turned in a second consecutive poor start against the lowly Miami Marlins, and has now allowed 10 earned runs over his last 11 innings.
Webb does have the distinction of inducing the second-most double plays (21) of any pitcher in the majors this year, and that actually lowers his ceiling for strikeouts just as much as how he has been battered around in his last two outings.
Webb gets a tough matchup against a Padres lineup who entered Friday with the lowest strikeout in the majors (16.2%) against right-handed pitchers in the second half of the season. He has recorded just four strikeouts in back-to-back starts, so we are backing the Under despite the increased juice, and even though the low seven-run O/U for the game suggests Webb should be in for a solid outing from an earned runs allowed standpoint.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.