For a while, it did not look like there would be any baseball played today after the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles finished sweeps of their respective Wild Card series. However, the Milwaukee Brewers battled back from a 3-2 eighth-inning deficit against the New York Mets to win 5-3 and set up the day’s only winner-take-all Game 3 of the four first round series.
Managers tend to employ plenty of relievers in an “all hands on deck” approach when facing elimination, and we highlight how that mentality provides value for one of tonight’s starting pitchers.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets and picks for Thursday, October 3.
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Thursday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets: Mets vs. Brewers
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jose Quintana Under 2.5 walks (-155)
Jose Quintana pitched against the Brewers as recently as Saturday, allowing two earned runs on five hits and two walks in 4 1/3 innings of work in a 6-0 loss. If Quintana starts tonight’s game anywhere as similarly as that weekend start, he will likely be yanked before he even makes one trip through the batting order, especially since fellow southpaw David Peterson is rested enough to work a bulk of innings.
Without any pitch count or innings limitations with the need for a quick hook in the regular season, Quintana allowed two or fewer walks in four consecutive starts and 10 of his final 14 to end the regular season. Yes, the Brewers are a patient team with the second-best walk rate in the regular season against left-handed pitchers. They drew four walks against Sean Manaea yesterday, but had the luxury of leading the series 1-0, and opted to use only three relievers two days after playing 18 innings to secure their playoff spot. New York does not have the similar luxury of playing with a lead anymore, and Quintana will likely get a quick hook before allowing three or more walks.
Pete Alonso Under 0.5 hits (+125)
Several Mets hitters like Francisco Lindor, Jose Iglesias, Mark Vientos, and Brandon Nimmo have O/Us of 1.5 for their total bases prop. But Pete Alonso’s total bases O/U is 0.5, suggesting that oddsmakers do not believe he will hit for any power even if he does record a base hit today.
Similar to Quintana, Milwaukee is likely to have a quick hook with starter Tobias Myers, meaning Alonso could face four different pitchers in four at-bats today depending on how the Brewers mix-and-match in this game. That would not bode well for Alonso’s chances of getting a hit, as the Brewers bullpen ranked in the top-six in the second half of the season in xFIP, Pitching+, and K-BB%. They were also in the top 10 in the majors in xFIP and Pitching+ for the entire season.
Some would argue that Alonso is seeing the ball well through two playoff games as evidenced by his three walks. He does have one hit in five at-bats, and has hits in three of his previous four games dating back to the doubleheader against the Braves. However, those three hits are his only ones in his last 21 at-bats, and his .222 batting average in September was his worst in a month since batting .220 in April.
Most Mets fans have resigned themselves to believe Alonso will not be on the team next year given his contract situation, and I envision a storyline where they blame the slugger for his struggles en route to being eliminated from the playoffs.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.