There is plenty of relevant data to scour through when making our best MLB player prop bets, as eight of the day’s 15 matchups are between divisional opponents. That suggests there should be some familiarity between pitchers and opposing hitters.
It should also be another cool start to the weekend at many open-air ballparks, especially those in the northeast and midwest. How will that impact players’ performances?
Read on for our top three MLB player prop bets for Saturday, April 12th.
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Saturday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 Hits (+145)
Nolan Arenado began the season with hits in nine consecutive games, and was batting .371 with a 1.006 OPS to that point. He has since cooled off, going 0-for-7 in the two games he played in Pittsburgh. I expect Phillies southpaw Cristopher Sanchez will keep him in check.
Sanchez increased velocity on his sinker from 92.1 miles per hour (MPH) in 2023 to 94.5 in 2024. The first-time All-Star last year recorded a 4.7 fWAR and 3.00 FIP, while 17 of his 31 starts were quality starts. Sanchez ranks in the 73rd percentile in barrels and is in the top 12% of all pitchers in chase rate and strikeout and whiff percentages. Thus, this is a great value on Arenado to again go hitless on Saturday.
Tyler O’Neill Over 0.5 RBI (+150)
Tyler O’Neill does not have the biggest sample size facing Jose Berrios, but he has four hits in his 10 career at-bats, producing a 1.155 OPS in that time.
O’Neill should have plenty of RBI opportunities hitting cleanup behind players like Adley Rutschman and Ryan O’Hearn. Rutschman is 15-for-25 in his career against Berrios, while O’Hearn has slashed .324/.395/.559 in his 34 at-bats against the Blue Jays righty.
Overall, Berrios has allowed a .276/.336/.517 slash line to current Orioles hitters. In addition, 39% of his hits allowed have gone for extra bases, so I expect plenty of traffic on the basepaths for the Orioles.
Martin Perez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Martin Perez has not had the best success against current Red Sox hitters, allowing a .758 OPS and recording a 13.1% strikeout rate in 61 combined at-bats.
Perez faces a Red Sox lineup that has struck out at the sixth-highest rate in the Majors (26.5%) and fourth-highest among American League teams against left-handed pitchers this season. While Perez has 13 strikeouts through 12.1 innings so far this season, I am banking on regression and a shorter outing after facing two division rivals to begin the season.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.