There are so many MLB player props to choose from on tonight’s MLB slate. However, I did the work for you. Here are three player props to consider for tonight’s 15-game slate.
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Friday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ryan Pepiot Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-154)
The Tampa Bay Rays will send out Ryan Pepiot for tonight’s game against the Baltimore Orioles. Pepiot has struck out 33.6% of batters over the last 30 days and has held those same 116 batters to a .143 ISO and wOBA of .248.
Pepiot has thrown more than 98 pitches per start over the last 30 days and has also limited teams to 21.2% of line drives during that stretch. He faces an Orioles lineup today that has six batters who have struck out at least 26.3% of the time. As a projected lineup, the Orioles have struck out more than 25% of the time against righties in the last month.
While the Orioles have some power in the lineup, they’ll likely whiff on more than a handful of Pepiot pitches. Let’s back Pepiot to add at least six strikeouts for the Rays tonight.
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (-160)
Manny Machado has smacked a .173 ISO and wOBA of .370 with only 14.8% of strikeouts against righties over the last 30 days. He’s also hit 43.8% of hard contact during that time and has limited his ground balls to 35.9% in the previous 30 days. This has resulted in a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .344, which leads the Padres against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days.
Tonight, Machado will take on Nick Martinez of the Reds, who has allowed a .500 ISO and wOBA of .565 against his last 42 righties. Martinez, a righty himself, has allowed 48.5% of fly balls and has struck out just 11.9% of right-handed batters in the previous 30 days.
In addition, Martinez has allowed a 21.2% barrel rate to his last 42 righties and has only earned 7% of swinging strikes. Machado is in a good spot to rake tonight.
Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-114)
The Atlanta Braves will battle the Phillies’ starter, Mick Abel, tonight. Abel is a righty who has allowed a .488 ISO and wOBA of .471 to his last 44 lefties. He’s had success against righties, but can’t seem to figure it out against lefties.
Abel has struck out only 13.8% of lefties over the last 30 days. He’s also allowed 34.3% of fly balls with just 20% of ground balls induced over the previous month.
Meanwhile, Matt Olson has smashed a .203 ISO and wOBA of .423 with only 17.9% of strikeouts against righties. The left-handed hitter has earned 72.4% of hard contact with a 17.2% barrel rate. He’s also hit 29.3% of fly balls and line drives with just 34.5% of ground balls.
Interestingly enough, Abel has allowed a .207 BABIP against lefties over the last month. That number will likely increase if he continues to produce like he has recently. Let’s trust Olson to add at least two total bases tonight. He’s got an insane matchup on paper.
