Now that the Wild Card games are done and in the books, we can get to the good stuff. I'm talking about the American League Division Series (ALDS) and National League Division Series (NLDS) matchups kicking off today. There are, of course, several ways to bet on these great baseball games, but I want to focus on the best MLB player props.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Player Props
Parker Messick Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-106 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Parker Messick went over this prop just 10 times in 32 starts, but he did go over it in three out of four starts against the White Sox during the regular season. Chicago finished the regular season fifth in strikeouts. They struck out 21 times in two games against Houston in the Wild Card round but went over that total in six innings just once.
If Messick pitches at least six innings, he'll exceed this total; he did so in three of his four starts against the White Sox, as mentioned earlier. He'll do it again today.
Tarik Skubal Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-110 at BetMGM)
Atlanta hit .232 during the Wild Card round (21 hits in three games), and .234 on the road during the regular season. Tarik Skubal went under this total in nine of his last 15 starts.
However, Skubal went over it in his lone start versus Atlanta earlier in the season on April 29th, when he allowed five hits. It's a low total, but I'm going with one of the best pitchers in baseball in the postseason.
Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Gerrit Cole has exceeded this total in his last two starts and in 11 of 22 starts this season. In three regular-season starts versus the Rays, he went over it in his last two, with a high of eight in his September 23rd start. However, the Rays had the second-fewest strikeouts during the regular season (592) and the American League's highest on-base percentage (.325).
There is no value in betting the under on this prop at -156 odds. However, I'd say there is value in the over.
Drew Rasmussen Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+112 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Drew Rasmussen went over this total in his last start, which came against the Yankees on September 22nd. But he finished under it in 10 of his last 15 starts, and in two-thirds of his total starts; the over was 2-2 in four starts versus the Yankees. But the Yankees, like most home run-focused teams, strike out a lot (tied for third most in baseball in the regular season with 782).
At +112 odds in the postseason, I'm willing to take a chance on the over.
Jacob Misiorowski Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-119 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jacob Misiorowski lasted seven innings (21 outs) in his one start against the Padres earlier in the season and has gone over this total in 18 of his 30 starts.
However, while Misiorowski went over it in six of his last 10 starts, he went under it in four of his last five. With the extra time off after the Brewers’ Wild Card-round bye, he'll be rested and ready to go against the Padres.
