Tonight, Brandon Pfaadt and Cal Quantrill are heavily favored to strike out more batters than their listed totals. However, below I explain why backing them to struggle is actually the better play, especially with prices for their Unders at better than +115. Then, I explain why Otto Lopez is destined to break out of his slump against the Phillies tonight.
Here are the best MLB player prop bets for July 28.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Brandon Pfaadt Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125)
Pfaadt has struck out just 45 batters in 65.0 innings this season. He has three or fewer strikeouts in 14 of his 19 appearances. In five consecutive appearances, Pfaadt has pitched at least 5.0 innings. He's struck out more than three batters just once during that stretch.
The Pirates have overtaken the Angels as the most strikeout-prone team in baseball. Still, to price Pfaadt's over at -160 is absurd. This is a pitcher that not only struggles to strike out batters, but also doesn't have a great history against the Pirates. In 32 at-bats, the current Pirates' lineup is hitting .312 against Pfaadt with just four strikeouts.
Additionally, though the Pirates strike out a lot, they're also the second-highest scoring team in the league. Pfaadt enters with a 4.43 ERA and could easily be chased from this game early.
Cal Quantrill Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+117)
Don't get hung up on the fact that this total is set at just 2.5. While that might seem incredibly low, the truth is, the Over is incredibly expensive compared to where it should be priced.
Quantrill has just 32 strikeouts in 53.1 innings pitched. He has struck out more than two batters in just three of his 21 appearances this season. In one of those appearances, he finished with just three strikeouts.
Tonight, Quantrill is tasked with facing a Rays lineup that has just 755 strikeouts this season. That's the fewest total strikeouts in the league, 20 fewer than the team that ranks 30th. And what makes this job even harder for Quantrill is that he's only pitched more than 4.0 innings twice all season. If he doesn't go at least 5.0 tonight, he has no chance of hitting this really low total.
Otto Lopez 2+ Hits (+166)
Lopez leads the MLB in batting average, but he's struggled of late. He went 0-for-4 against the Padres on Sunday, and he has one or fewer hits in 11 of his last 12 games. However, I'm taking him to break out of his slump tonight in a great matchup.
Phillies' starter Aaron Nola has a WHIP of 1.45, allowing 121 hits in 108.1 innings. He's given up at least six hits in four of his last five starts, and he allowed five in 6.0 innings against the Marlins earlier this season.
While Lopez went just 1-for-4 in that first meeting against Nola and the Phillies, his career numbers against Nola are outstanding. He has five hits in nine at-bats, with two doubles and zero strikeouts. Considering Nola hasn't been pitching very well, I'll back Lopez, even if he is in the middle of his worst slump of the season.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.