MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (8/16)

With all 15 teams on the board, we have a ton of extremely interesting pitching matchups, including what is likely the best on the board between Aaron Nola and Kevin Gausman. With several teams in getaway day mode as well, we have a number of afternoon games on the slate. Let’s take a look at our favorite SGP bets on the day.

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Wednesday’s Best MLB Same Game Parlays

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

Tigers ML (+150) and o4.5 Runs (+155)

Reese Olson has been one of my favorite rookie pitchers this season, and because of the team he plays for, he has gone a bit under the radar. Nothing in the profile jumps out, but he has right around a K an inning, with low walk numbers. The biggest issue for him has been the long ball. The Twins hit a decent number of homers making this a bit tough, but they also strike out more than any other team in baseball. On the other side of this game, Kenta Maeda has been fantastic since returning from his injury this season. Maeda has a double-digit K/9 and has not allowed over two runs in his last five outings. However, he has also allowed a homer in each of those five games. While the Tigers do not have an elite offense by any means, Maeda is seemingly playing with fire with the long ball, and small regression could lead to big blowups.

Kerry Carpenter 2+ TBs (+115)

If you have read this article most of the season, you would know that I love Carpenter. He mashes righties and hits in the middle of the order. There’s real power here, and if any hitter is going to lead an offensive explosion, it’s Carpenter.

Combined Odds: +400

Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays

Phillies ML (+125) and o4.5 Runs (+155)

Aaron Nola has not had a great season, and across the board, his numbers have regressed. Ks are down, and Walks and Homers are up. It has all led to the worst FIP of his career. In the last month or so, Toronto has been more of a middle-of-the-road offense as opposed to their elite reputation, and power has been one of their biggest deficiencies in that span. Nola is still one of the most talented arms in baseball and has the ability to take over any game. Kevin Gausman has been the opposite of Nola, and this is arguably his best season yet. Gausman has had a few big blow-up games this season, and they usually come when his walk and homer numbers jump. The Phillies have a top-five BB% in the last month and have been middle of the road in terms of power. With their best bats being lefties with immense patience, this could be a rough matchup for Gausman.

Kyle Schwarber 2+ TBs (+150)

These odds make no sense to me. More than half of Schwarber’s hits go for extra bases, and while he walks a ton which limits his chances of getting hits when he does, it is damaging. He has the same odds as Bryson Stott, which does not make a ton of sense to me. This fits in perfectly with our overall SGP.

Combined Odds: +475

Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres

Orioles ML (+130) and o4.5 Runs (+160)

Another player I have found myself interested in most of this season is Dean Kremer. Kremer’s numbers do not stand out at all, but he has 11 wins despite an elevated ERA. The biggest reason for the ERA is an insane HR/9 at 1.7. However, he has had multiple games with huge strikeout totals where he has been nothing short of dominant. With the prices on this game what they are, this is a great spot to take a shot that this is another one of those dominant performances. Blake Snell is probably the NL CY Young favorite, but if you have followed him at all, it seems like he is teetering on disaster every game. He has a BB/9 over five which is just amazing when you consider how good his overall numbers have been. Baltimore has a 109 wRC+ and a BB% just under 10 percent versus southpaws. If any team is able to make Snell pay for his overall highwire act, it is this Baltimore offense.

Ryan Mountcastle 2+ TBs (+145)

This is another one where I do not get the pricing. Mountcastle is the Orioles’ best hitter versus lefties with a 181 wRC+. The price is where it is because of the respect Snell is getting, but when we are betting on the over for the team total, we are expecting Snell to get hit around, and Mountcastle will be in the center of it.

Combined Odds: +475