While there are only eight games on the slate, I still found value in two matchups and added MLB same game parlays (SGPs) for both.
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Monday’s Best MLB Same Game Parlays
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Boston Red Sox MLB SGP
- Leg 1: Chase Burns Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+126)
- Leg 2: Roman Anthony Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
- Leg 3: Garrett Crochet Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+110)
The Cincinnati Reds will start Chase Burns for the second time this season. The rookie right-hander struck out 38.1% of batters in his first career start and allowed zero walks. Meanwhile, he’ll take on a Red Sox lineup that has struck out 26.3% of the time against righties over the last 30 days. There are ultimately seven batters in the Boston lineup who have struck out at least 25% of the time against righties over the previous month. With seven targets, consider Burns to add at least seven strikeouts.
That said, Burns also allowed a .250 ISO and wOBA of .323 to his first 12 lefties. Those lefties added 42.9% of line drives and hit only 14.3% of ground balls. Roman Anthony has only struck out 16% of the time against righties and has hit a .200 ISO and wOBA of .361. He’s one of the more patient Red Sox hitters. If anyone can get the best of Burns, it’s Anthony.
On the flip side, Garrett Crochet will take the mound for the Red Sox. The dominant lefty has struck out 34.8% of batters over the last 30 days. He’s also limited teams to a .113 ISO and wOBA of .242 over the previous month. He’ll battle a Reds lineup that has struck out 25.1% of the time against lefties in the last month. There are just three batters who have struck out fewer than 23% of the time against lefties in that Cincy lineup. Plus, Cincinnati has hit a .274 wOBA against lefties over the last month. Crochet should last long against the Reds. Take his over 8.5 strikeouts to close out this parlay.
Parlay Odds: +880
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB SGP
- Leg 1: Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 Total Bases (-150)
- Leg 2: Willy Adames Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
- Leg 3: Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
The Arizona Diamondbacks are set to pitch Ryne Nelson tonight. The right-hander has only struck out 19.4% of righties over the last month and has allowed a .367 ISO and wOBA of .435 to his previous 36 righties. In addition, he’s allowed as many fly balls and ground balls induced to righties in the last 30 days, and he’s given up a 17.4% barrel rate with only 7.7% of swinging strikes against righties.
Therefore, we’ll stack the righties in the Giants’ order.
Heliot Ramos has hit a .354 wOBA over the last 30 days against righties. He’s also added 27.6% of line drives and a 46.6% hard contact rate. That’s helped him add a .321 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against righties over the last month.
Meanwhile, Willy Adames has earned a .317 wOBA against righties over the last 30 days. He’s smacked nearly 35% of fly balls and 58.1% of hard contact. As a result, he’s earned a .317 BABIP against righties over the last 30 days.
Casey Schmitt has been the hottest right-handed hitter on the Giants against righties. He’s launched a .289 ISO and wOBA of .454, while hitting 64.7% of hard contact.
Trust the Giants’ righties tonight.
Parlay Odds: +669
