Let’s dive into our top MLB Sleeper player picks and predictions on Saturday’s slate of games.
Simeon Woods Richardson Less Than 4.5 Hits Allowed (1.58x)
Throughout the season, Simeon Woods Richardson has held teams to a .109 ISO and woBA of .276. While his strikeout rate isn’t high, Woods Richardson has still held teams to a 6% walk rate and has allowed only 22.7% of line drives.
Meanwhile, the Twins righty will face a Pirates projected lineup with a .120 ISO and wOBA of .292. There are already four batters in the lineup with a wOBA of below .300 and five batters with an ISO no greater than .143 over the last 30 days.
In addition, the Pirates have struck out 28.5% of the time against righties in the last 30 days using the projected lineup. Woods Richardson might even see his strikeout rate increase against Pittsburgh. Let’s back his Under.
Kevin Gausman Less Than 2.5 Earned Runs (1.48x)
Last season, Kevin Gausman struck out 30.9% of batters. He hasn’t been the same this year, with just 22.6% of strikeouts. However, he’s still managed 25.7% of strikeouts against righties.
In today’s Oakland lineup, there will at least be four righties in the lineup. Those four righties have combined to strike out 24.5% of the time. Meanwhile, the five lefties in the projected lineup have struck out above 30% of the time against righties.
This is a big turnaround spot for Gausman. He’s been inconsistent this year, but going up against Oakland should help.
After all, Oakland’s projected lineup has a .123 ISO and wOBA of .284 over the last 30 days against righties.
Rafael Devers More Than 1.5 Total Bases (1.83x)
There might not be any left-handed hitter hotter than Rafael Devers right now. Over the last 30 days, Devers has smacked a .469 ISO and wOBA of .477 against righties. He’s also struck out below 20% of the time and has hit 35.3% of fly balls with 60.8% of hard contact.
Devers has even used a 15.7% barrel percentage and has hit just 33.3% of ground balls.
He’ll be in line to face Nick Nastrini of the White Sox, who has allowed a .240 ISO and wOBA of .461 to his first 38 lefties faced. The Chicago righty has only struck out 5.3% of lefties and has allowed more than 30% of line drives against lefties.
Take a chance with Devers.
Kyle Bradish More Than 5.5 Ks (1.57x)
Kyle Bradish has struck out 32% of batters this season. He’s also limited opponents to a .093 ISO and wOBA of .291. In addition, Bradish has earned 52.9% of grounders and has allowed only 16.2% of fly balls.
These types of stats keep you on the mound.
Meanwhile, he’ll face a Rays lineup that has struck out 24.3% of the time over the last 30 days. This projected lineup has six batters who have struck out at least 25% of the time over the previous month. With six targets and six strikeouts needed, Bradish has plenty of opportunity to add at least six strikeouts. He’ll face these targets multiple times during the game.
