Saturday provides us with a small six-game slate. What the NBA schedule lacks in volume, it makes up for in value. With some of the league's biggest stars in play Sunday here are some of the best bets I'll be backing.
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Sunday’s Best NBA Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers
Coming into this season there was plenty of intrigue for this matchup. It was supposed to be a chance for the Clippers to get their revenge on Paul George after he moved to Philadelphia during the offseason. Unfortunately, with George nursing an injury, they won't get a chance. Additionally, stars Kawhi Leonard and Joel Embiid will also be missing this game.
With all of the star power on the injury report, it's easy to see why the total in this game is so low. Both of these teams sit in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating. Neither team has shot the ball particularly well. This is especially true for Philadelphia, who sits 28th in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and second to last in shooting percentage at the rim and from three.
With both of these teams having their struggles on offense, they tend to play at a slower pace. Both teams play in the bottom 10 in pace and average fewer than 100 possessions per 48 minutes. This has manifested particularly well for Los Angeles, who has allowed fewer than 100 points in three consecutive games, including contests against the Kings and Warriors, who tout high-powered offenses.
Los Angeles and Philadelphia feel most comfortable playing in the mud. This style helps to mask their struggles on offense. With key players injured, they'll both need all the help they can get. I expect this game to get ugly and turn into a low-scoring rock fight. Even with this low total, I don't think it's low enough. I'll be backing the under.
Pick: Under 209.5 Points (-110)
Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings
The Nets travel to Sacramento where the Kings are starting to get healthy after key players missed some time over the last few weeks. In their first game with DeMar DeRozan and Domontas Sabonis in the lineup, they managed to only score 88 points against the Clippers. This was a game where they shot an incredibly poor 38.6% from the field. Although Brooklyn isn't the defensive stalwart that Los Angeles is, there is reason to believe this game could get ugly.
The Nets have played at the slowest pace in the league all season. Their average defensive possession sits at 15 seconds per possession, which is only faster than one team - Sacramento. Because of this, even though Brooklyn has one of the worst defensive ratings in the league and allows one of the worst defensive eFG%, they sit just below league average in points per game allowed at 114.6.
This game will be played at a slow pace, which likely plays into Sacramento's hand. Even with a solid offensive performance, this game could easily end up a low-scoring affair. I'm banking on this and backing the under.
Pick: Under 223.5 Points (-110)
