If you’re looking for some value bets with tonight’s Play-In games, you’ve come to the right place. After using BettingPros’ Market Based EV page, I found some positive expected value bets you’ll want to consider. Let’s get to it!
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Friday’s Best Market Based EV NBA Picks
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise stated)
Dillon Brooks Over 3.5 Rebounds (-110 at BetRivers)
- Fair Value: -119
- Market EV: 4%
Dillon Brooks grabbed seven rebounds against Portland in the first Play-In game for the Suns. He didn’t have high offensive usage, but he was certainly active on the glass.
Over the last ten games, Brooks averaged a little over five rebound chances per game. Against Portland, he earned seven rebounds and had even more rebound chances. He also played 36.6 minutes, which was more than the about 27 minutes a night for the Suns over the last ten games.
Brooks will take on a Warriors team that ranks 10th in defensive rebounding and 7th in total rebounds allowed to small forwards. Yet, if he continues to get 35+ minutes, the rebound chances should still be there. I’ll side with the Over and grab this positive expected value bet.
Kon Knueppel Under 2.5 Threes Made (+128 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +124
- Market EV: 2%
It was a forgettable night for Kon Knueppel in Charlotte’s incredible win over the Miami Heat in the first Play-In game. Knueppel was benched in the latter portion of the game after missing all six of his three-point attempts.
Over the last five games, Knueppel has nailed at least three three-pointers in only two of those five games. Over the last ten games, he’s shot just 25.2% from downtown, and his usage dropped significantly in that matchup against the Heat.
The Magic rank 10th in the NBA in three-point field goal percentage against small forwards. The volume might be there, but Orlando typically defends well in these situations. I’m taking the Under, which currently has value via DraftKings.
Brandin Podziemski Under 1.5 Threes Made (+144 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +128
- Market EV: +7%
Brandin Podziemski has nailed at least two three-pointers in nine of his last ten games. However, we’ll take his Under in tonight’s game.
After all, he shot just 29% from downtown against the Clippers and hasn’t shot above 40% from three in four straight games. In his most recent game against the Suns, he only attempted three three-pointers and missed all of them. He’s shot 25% or worse against Phoenix in three of his last four games against them.
The Suns rank first in the NBA in three-point field goal attempts against shooting guards. It might be hard for Podziemski to get good looks from downtown tonight. Finish the night with this Under.
