In a couple of days, we’ll know the exact NBA playoffs bracket. But to get there, we first have to get through tonight’s two NBA Play-In Tournament games. Below, I’ve used BettingPros’ Market Based EV tool to find some positive expected value NBA picks for tonight’s games.
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Tuesday’s Best Market Based EV NBA Picks
Tyler Herro Under 21.5 Points (+100 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: -109
- Market EV: 2%
Tyler Herro has scored at least 22 points in none of his last four games. He’s scored at least 22 points in just 45% of games this season and has hit this line in only 40% of his last 20 games.
Herro will take on a Hornets team ranked first in the NBA in three-pointers by shooting guards. The Hornets also rank ninth in points allowed and 10th in field-goal rate against shooting guards.
Herro missed this line back on March 17th, when he played 31 minutes and took just two threes against the Hornets. Herro added nine foul shots in that game and still couldn’t get to 22 points.
Devin Booker Over 1.5 Steals (+220 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +18
- Market EV: +11%
Devin Booker isn’t known for racking up steals. In fact, he’s nailed this line in just one of his last 10 games. But let’s go back to his last meeting against Portland, when he earned three steals in 29 minutes.
That wasn’t a coincidence.
The Trail Blazers rank 29th in steals allowed to shooting guards. They turn the ball over a lot against shooting guards. Sometimes steals fall into your hands due to careless basketball from the other team. That’s what we’re hoping to see today.
Booker can totally surprise and add at least two steals tonight.
Dillon Brooks Under 3.5 Rebounds (+125 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +121
- Market EV: +2%
Over the last five games, Dillon Brooks has added at least four rebounds in only two games. He’s averaged only 5.2 rebound chances during that stretch and didn’t grab one defensive rebound in his last game against the Lakers on April 10th.
The Suns aren’t exactly great at stopping rebounds against small forwards. But Brooks has earned just six rebounds in his last two games combined against the Trail Blazers. He had just five rebound chances in his last game against them. While he did earn four rebounds on those five rebound chances, that would be hard to replicate on a game-to-game basis.
Let’s take his under on rebounds today.
