There’s plenty of value on the NBA board for the second round of the NBA playoffs. After using the Market Based EV page for the NBA, I’m very confident in tonight’s NBA picks.
Follow along and consider using the Market Based EV tool to add even more sports bets to your betting portfolio for Monday, May 4th.
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Monday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Mikal Bridges Over 2.5 Assists (+135 at BetRivers)
- Fair Value: +127
- Market EV: +3%
Mikal Bridges has earned at least three assists in 65% of games this season. He also just finished with three assists in Game 6 against the Atlanta Hawks, despite playing just 26.7 minutes in the blowout win.
Bridges has secured at least three assists in 10 of his last 12 games against the 76ers. He’s also averaged nearly four assists per game during that stretch. The 76ers rank 27th in assists allowed to small forwards this season. Bridges should have many opportunities to land some assists tonight.
At BetRivers, you can add this bet at +135 odds, while the fair value is only +127.
Keldon Johnson Over 3.5 Rebounds (+100 at BetRivers)
- Fair Value: -111
- Market EV: +5%
Over the last 10 games, Keldon Johnson has averaged 5.3 rebounds per game. He’s hit this line in 73% of games this season and continues to add a ton of rebound chances, despite not seeing a lot of minutes. Johnson has had multiple games with 16 rebound chances in the playoffs, despite never playing more than 21 minutes in any of those games.
Meanwhile, you can add Johnson to haul in at least four rebounds at +100 odds on BetRivers, when the fair value is -111. That’s a 5% play.
Julius Randle Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-145 at Hard Rock Bet)
- Fair Value: -152
- Market EV: +2%
Julius Randle has had to step up lately for the Timberwolves. We’ll see if Anthony Edwards plays. But either way, Randle has been the backbone for this team in the playoffs.
Randle has drained at least two threes in back-to-back games and has attempted nearly four threes a night over the last 10 games. He’s also shot at least 40% from deep in back-to-back games and is set to face a Spurs team ranked 29th in three-point field goal rate against power forwards.
You’ll find a +2% play with Randle at Hard Rock Bet. You can get this play at -145 odds when the fair value is listed at -152.
