The Cleveland Cavaliers will look to get on the board after falling 2-0 in the Eastern Conference semifinals against the Detroit Pistons. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers will look to do the same in Game 3 on the Western Conference side against the defending champs. That said, I checked out the Market Based EV page for some of the most valuable NBA picks on the slate.
Follow along and consider using the Market Based EV tool to add even more sports bets to your betting portfolio for Saturday, May 9th.
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Saturday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 Rebounds (-125 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: -135
- Market EV: +3%
Donovan Mitchell has earned at least four rebounds in all but one game out of his last eight. He’s had at least eight rebound chances in five of his last six games, including both games against the Pistons in the playoffs.
Right now, BetMGM is carrying the over on his rebounds prop at -125, when the overall fair value of this bet is at -135. That’s a 3% positive expected value play.
Mitchell has hit this line in 61% of games this season and has nailed this line in 70% of his last 20 games. He’s also averaged nearly four rebounds per game against the Pistons in his last nine contests against them.
Rui Hachimura Under 3.5 Rebounds (+120 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +108
- Market EV: +6%
Although Rui Hachimura finished with four rebounds in Game 2 of this series against the Thunder, he’s still only hit this line in 39% of games. In addition, he had two rebounds in the first game of this series, despite seeing nine rebound chances.
Hachimura hasn’t taken advantage of his rebound chances this season or in this series.
That said, you can find Hachimura to go under 3.5 rebounds at +120 via BetMGM. That’s some insane value, given the fair value is +108. Grab this bet while you can.
Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+160 at PartyCasino)
- Fair Value: +138
- Market EV: +9%
Chet Holmgren has drained at least two threes in three consecutive games. He’s also hit this line in both Western Conference semifinal matchups. He’s attempted at least five threes in two of the last three games and has shot nearly 50% from downtown over the last 10 games.
At PartyCasino, you can add this bet at +160, while the fair value is +138. That’s a solid 9% positive expected value. This is a bet people dream of making daily. Lock it in.
