If you’re looking to find some value for tonight’s Western Conference Finals matchup, you’re going to want to take a look at the Market Based EV page. I shared three NBA picks below.
Follow along and consider using the Market Based EV tool to add even more bets for Monday, May 18th.
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Monday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Isaiah Hartenstein Under 8.5 Rebounds (+105 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: -101
- Market EV: +3%
Isaiah Hartenstein was dominant on the glass against the Los Angeles Lakers. He earned at least nine rebounds in every contest of that four-game sweep. However, the Spurs will likely be a bit more competitive on the glass against Hartenstein.
Ultimately, you can find his rebounds under prop at +105 odds on BetMGM. The fair value is -101. That’s a 3% positive expected value bet and a really good wager to consider for tonight’s game. You won’t find a better price.
Luguentz Dort Over 5.5 Points (-120 at PartyCasino)
- Fair Value: -127
- Market EV: +3%
Luguentz Dort has scored at least six points in seven of his last nine games against the Spurs. He’s also hit this line in back-to-back games. Dort’s usage rate is low, and he’s attempted about six shots per game over the last 10 games.
However, the fair value is at -127, when PartyCasino has this bet at -120. That’s another 3% positive expected value play. All signs point to Dort being good enough to add at least six points. That’s just two three-pointers. He’s taken at least five in three of his last four games.
Luguentz Dort Under 2.5 Rebounds (+100 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: -104
- Market EV: +2%
While we like Luguentz Dort to score points, we’ll be rooting against any putbacks.
Dort has added at least three rebounds in only four of his last 10 games. He’s averaged almost six rebound chances per game, but he’s had six games with no more than two rebounds over the last 10 games.
The fair value is -104 here, but BetMGM has the under at +100. That’s another solid bet for tonight’s game.
