We’ve got another four-game slate in the NBA tonight! Ultimately, three of the four postseason games are currently 2-1 heading into Game 4. However, the Los Angeles Lakers have the chance to be the first team into the second round, leading the Houston Rockets 3-0. That said, here are some NBA picks using the BettingPros Market-Based EV page.
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Sunday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated)
Toumani Camara Over 2.5 Threes Made (+162 at FanDuel)
- Fair Value: +152
- Market EV: +4%
Toumani Camara has played at least 31 minutes in each of the first three postseason games against the San Antonio Spurs. During those three games, he’s drilled at least two threes in two of the three games. He hasn’t hit three yet.
That said, he’s nailed at least three three-pointers in 49% of games this season and has attempted nearly eight threes per game over his last ten games. He’s seen a dip in usage in the postseason, but he’s still shot 35.5% from downtown and has had multiple games with 8+ three-point attempts to close out the regular season.
Right now, you can find Over 2.5 Threes Made at +162, while the Fair Value is set at +152. That’s a top play!
Neemias Queta Over 8.5 Points (+105 at Bet MGM)
- Fair Value: +101
- Market EV: +2%
Neemias Queta played 15.1 minutes or fewer in two of the first three games of this series against the 76ers. Still, he’s taken nearly seven shots per game and has averaged 82.4% from the field over the last ten games. He’s also made it to the foul line at least once in every game against the 76ers in the playoffs.
Anyway, Bet MGM is carrying an Over 8.5 line at +105, but the true fair value is at +101. It’s a 2% play, but that’s still value!
LeBron James Over 1.5 Threes Made (+110 at Hard Rock)
- Fair Value: -101
- Market EV: +6%
LeBron James continues to amaze with his play during the postseason. He just drained four three-pointers on nine attempts against the Rockets, on the road. In fact, he’s shot 40.2% from downtown over the last ten games and has attempted more than four threes per game during that stretch.
James has also nailed at least two threes in three of his last four games against the Rockets, including in the last two postseason games.
At this time, Hard Rock has a +110 line for this bet, while the fair market value is at -101. This is a massive value play, sitting at +6% market EV.
