With just one game on the slate, there aren’t a ton of NBA picks on the Market Based EV page. However, there are still four. I’ll provide my top three. But make sure to check the page again to see if any other lines changed that would provide some value.
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Tuesday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
Odds courtesy of BetMGM | All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated
Julian Champagnie Over 1.5 Assists (+130)
- Fair Value: +121
- Market EV: +4%
Julian Champagnie has added at least two assists in four of his last five games. He’s also hit this line in three consecutive games during this series.
Champagnie has played nearly 30 minutes per game in this series, and he’s had at least three potential assists in three straight games.
Ultimately, this isn’t a number Champagnie hit a ton during the regular season. But he’s shown a lot of consistency in the assist column recently. Getting +130 odds at BetMGM is huge. The fair value is +121, giving this play a market EV of 4%. Ride with this bet.
Luke Kornet Under 3.5 Points (+110)
- Fair Value: +102
- Market EV: +4%
Luke Kornet finished with seven points in Game 4. But that’s because he played more minutes thanks to Victor Wembanyama’s ejection. Kornet played 26 minutes, while his typical playoff minutes were around 10 per game.
Kornet’s usage rate will likely return to 5%, and he might take one field-goal attempt in this one.
You’ll find Kornet at +110 to score under 3.5 points at BetMGM. That’s a 4% positive expected-value play, since the fair value is currently at +102.
Julius Randle Under 3.5 Assists (+120)
- Fair Value: +115
- Market EV: +2%
Julius Randle hasn’t earned four or more assists in any game this month. He’s played four games against the Spurs in May and has earned no more than three assists in all four of those games.
Randle has had two games with two assists and one with zero assists. He hasn’t even come close to four assists in three of those four games. Randle is prone to mistakes, too. He’s turned the ball over at least five times in three of the four games during this postseason series against the Spurs.
At +120, you can get some really good value on Randle’s assists line. Take a chance.
