The value is out there. We’ve just got to find it. Thanks to the BettingPros Market Based EV page, I’ve locked in three NBA picks for tonight’s slate that have some value. Check them out below.
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Tuesday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated)
Paul George Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+125 at PartyCasino)
- Fair Value: +113
- Market EV: +6%
Paul George has drained at least three three-pointers in back-to-back games against the Celtics. Ultimately, he took only three attempts against the Celtics in Game 4, but he still hit all three. George has shot at least 50% from three-point range in three of the first four games against the 76ers.
PartyCasino is giving us +125 odds for this bet, while the fair market is currently set at +113. That’s a +6% positive expected-value bet. If you keep finding these types of bets, you’ll have success in the long run.
Gabe Vincent Over 3.5 Points (+140 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +125
- Market EV: +7%
Gabe Vincent won’t play much. He’s played fewer than 15 minutes in every game of this series against the Knicks. However, his usage rate reached 26.1% in 14 minutes in Game 4. He took six field-goal attempts and got to the foul line a couple of times in that game.
At BetMGM, we need Vincent to score at least four points to cash a +140 bet. His fair market value is at +125, and the market EV is currrently +7%. Grab this bet while you can. He’s scored 6.1 points per game in his last eight games against the Knicks.
Stephon Castle Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+135 at Hard Rock Bet)
- Fair Value: +115
- Market EV: +9%
Stephon Castle has nailed three three-pointers in back-to-back games against the Portland Trail Blazers. His minutes were limited in Game 4, but he still managed six three-point attempts and hit 50% from three in that game.
Over the last 10 games, Castle has attempted nearly five threes per game and has shot 45.5% from deep. If he attempts five or six threes, given the way he’s shooting, he’ll likely be able to add at least two three-pointers tonight.
The +135 odds at Hard Rock Bet make this an insane positive expected value play. Take it now.
