We’re fishing for valuable prop bets for tonight’s NBA two-game slate. With help from the Market Based EV page, I’m feeling very confident about today’s wagers.
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Wednesday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Quentin Grimes Over 2.5 Rebounds (+105 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: -104
- Market EV: +4%
Quentin Grimes finished with just one rebound against the Knicks in Game 1 of this Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup. He had just two rebound chances and played over 24 minutes in that game.
In fact, over the last five games, he’s hit his rebound line in just two of five games. Still, he’s averaged 5.4 rebound chances per game over the last ten games. He’s also hit this line in 67% of games this season and has grabbed 3.3 rebounds per game against the Knicks over the last eight games against New York.
It was a brutal game for the Sixers in Game 1 of this series, but Grimes had seen at least four rebound chances in each of his last nine games before Monday’s game. Let’s take his over. It’s at +105, when the fair value is at -104.
Julian Champagne Under 8.5 Points (+118 at Caesars)
- Fair Value: +102
- Market EV: +8%
Julian Champagne has had a lot of success recently. He’s scored 17+ points in back-to-back games and has added at least nine points in four of his last five games. Still, he’s only averaged 12% usage over the last ten games and has hit this line in three of his last 11 games against the Timberwolves, including Game 1 on Monday.
Meanwhile, you can land his Under in points at +118 via Caesars, when the fair value is set at +102. That’s an 8% positive EV play. It’s one of the best bets you’ll find on the board. Let’s attack!
Devin Vassell Over 4.5 Rebounds (+116 at Caesars)
- Fair Value: +112
- Market EV: +2%
We’ve seen Devin Vassell haul in at least five rebounds in four of his last five games. He also achieved five rebounds against the Timberwolves in Game 1 of this series after playing over 36 minutes.
Additionally, he’s had 7.6 rebound chances over his last ten games and has had multiple games with 10+ rebound chances during that stretch.
At +116, after hitting this line four of his last five games, there’s some clear value. Take his Over.
