The Oklahoma City Thunder look to even their series against the San Antonio Spurs. Below, I highlight why I don't anticipate them having any trouble doing that, though I expect the Spurs to score more than sportsbooks anticipate. I also recommend a prop with odds of +141. Here are the best NBA picks for Wednesday, May 20th.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder First Half -4.5 (-110)
The Thunder did so much wrong and still almost won Game 1. I can't help but feel great about their chances in Game 2. As a team, they shot just 41% from the field and attempted only 19 free throws, despite averaging 23.2 per game during the regular season.
When you compare the performances of each team's best player, you'd expect the game to be even more lopsided. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored just 24 points in 51 minutes, as he shot just 7-of-23 from the floor. Meanwhile, Victor Wembanyama scored 41 points and grabbed 24 rebounds. Yet, the Thunder still managed to take the game to double overtime.
Including the postseason, the Thunder are 38-8 at home this season. Each of their home postseason wins has been by at least 13 points. And for as good as the Spurs looked in Game 1, they've been inconsistent to start every series thus far. After picking up a Game 1 win over the Trail Blazers in the first round, they lost Game 2 at home. In the second round, they lost Game 1 to the Timberwolves.
I believe the Thunder’s sweep of the first two rounds may have hurt them, leaving them rusty. Look for them to shake that rust early and dominate the first half of a must-win game.
Spurs Team Total Over 104.5 Points (-110)
I expect the Thunder to win this game decisively, but I think the Spurs' offense is being undervalued in this contest. The Spurs have scored at least 109 points in 10 of their 12 games this postseason, and they just dropped 122 in the first game. Yes, that game went to double overtime, but they still had 101 points at the end of regulation, so they were right around this number.
Though the Thunder are allowing just 106.6 points per game in the postseason, that number is helped greatly by two stellar performances in their first two series. The Thunder held the Suns to 84 in one game and the Lakers to 90 in another, but in every other game, they've given up at least 107 points.
These teams have met six times this season. The Spurs have scored at least 111 points in five of those games.
Alex Caruso or Devin Vassell - Either Player 4+ Three-Pointers Made (+141)
Let me start by saying I understand Alex Caruso won't replicate his Game 1 performance. He made eight of his 14 three-point attempts as he led the Thunder with 31 points. However, this is still a player with 21 made three-pointers this postseason, and he's now made at least three in four of his nine games.
Meanwhile, Devin Vassell hasn't made more than three three-pointers since he made four in his first game of the postseason. However, he's made three threes in four games since then, including Game 1 of this series. In that contest, he went 3-of-9 from deep, marking his third game against the Thunder this season with at least three threes.
While I'm definitely more confident in one of these players making three three-pointers, the price for that prop is -219. Therefore, I'm going with value here, especially since both of these shooters are coming off solid performances in Game 1.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.