The NBA is officially back. I'll be here every Friday, Saturday and Sunday with the best NBA player props for the day. We already had an explosive start to the season, and there are so many storylines to be excited about.
As always, keep an eye on any potential news and lineup announcements. You never know who might pop up on the injury report. The best way to stay informed on NBA player props is to keep up with the latest updates. The second best way is to shop around at different books. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, even in the playoffs, so ensure you get the best value.
I took a big swing and a miss last time out, but it's a long season, folks. I had the right ideas but missed on the right pieces. But there’s no time like the present to bounce back. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Sunday’s Best NBA Player Props & Bets
Last Time: 0-3 | This Season: 2-1 | Last Season: 92-76
Luka Doncic Over 39.5 Points + Assists (-118 at Betr)
This prop line is pretty high already, but not high enough. The Utah Jazz project as a bottom-five defense and are coming off a season where they ranked second in the league in pace of play. In Luka Doncic's first two games, he combined for 30 and 35 points + assists, but neither the Clippers nor the Warriors are as much of a projection promotion as the Utah Jazz.
Doncic’s line was projected for over 40 in the previous two games, so even with the opponent, it's still taken a hit. His usage rate was 38% a year ago, and he's already averaging higher than that in the first two games of the season, so it's not like he isn't taking the shots. Doncic’s field-goal rate is 10 percentage points lower than last year, so a clear positive regression is coming for the Lakers star.
Ausar Thompson Under 22.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-112 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
After coming off an injury the game before against the Heat, Ausar Thompson is questionable tonight, so I'm surprised this prop is available, but I'd jump on it before it dips. Even if he does start, his usage is down a tick from last season, and I expect his minutes to decrease as well.
To go with that, the 76ers are off to an awesome start to the season at 3-0 with the fourth-most efficient defense, and Thompson’s production dipped on the road last year as well. The Pistons will try to slow this game down and play through Cade Cunningham. Thompson can get to this line on a different night, but not tonight.
LaMelo Ball Over 26.5 Points + Assists (-120 at Betr)
LaMelo Ball hasn't had the hottest start from a prop performance perspective, and Toronto is already at the top of the league in defensive rating, which is exactly why I'm zagging while everyone zigs and am betting the over. I fully expect Ball to see more minutes, given that both of the first games were blowouts and his 27% usage rate is a promising floor that should get him over this line.
I expect Anthony Edwards to get more attention after his start to the year by Kawhi Leonard and Co., and that should open lanes and opportunities for Ball. I am all in on this Minnesota squad and want to buy stock now because I imagine these props will be higher down the road.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.