ESPN ran a piece recently debating whether or not this NIL era of college basketball has killed the upset. It was interesting timing, coming off a season where all four No. 1 seeds (Duke, Florida, Houston, Auburn) made the Final Four for just the second time in NCAA Tournament history (2008 was the other).
Since history says that won’t happen this year, I am taking a dive into which No. 1 seed will lose early, and when, while pointing out each of team’s flaws and analyzing their possible opponents.
Which No. 1 seed is most ripe for the picking? Let’s take a deeper dive into each team and their tournament paths.
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First No. 1 Seed to Lose
Duke Blue Devils
Overview
Duke is the No. 1 overall seed in this tournament, but was dealt some bad injury news when guard Caleb Foster was ruled out for the season with a fractured foot. It is the only team in the tournament balanced enough to rank in both the top four in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
The Blue Devils have a wealth of NBA talent on their roster, starting with Cameron Boozer, a likely surefire top-three NBA Draft pick. They also own two non-conference wins over two of the other No. 1 seeds in the “Big Dance” (Florida and Michigan).
Flaws
Foster’s injury hurts Duke’s backcourt depth, and the team will now be forced to rely on freshman Cayden Boozer more. He had a season-high 16 points in each of his last two games to end the ACC Tournament, but he is also shooting just 28.8% from beyond the arc this season. If teams continue to sag off him, that creates more defensive pressure for his brother.
The Path
Duke was placed in the “region of doom” if we’re looking at the successes of coaches, as it shares a region with Bill Self, Tom Izzo, Dan Hurley, Mick Cronin and Rick Pitino. Just seven active Division I coaches have won a National Championship, and four of them are in this region.
The Verdict
St. John’s is a nightmare draw for Duke (and any team for that matter) in a potential Sweet 16 matchup, as it could impose its physicality and expose Duke’s weaknesses at the guard position. If they can avoid that matchup, a Final Four could be on the horizon, as it already owns wins over Kansas and Michigan State, two of the top four seeds in the region.
Arizona Wildcats
Overview
While Duke is the only team in the tournament with top-four rankings in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, Arizona isn’t too far behind with top-five rankings in both. The Wildcats were one of the last unbeaten teams after starting 23-0, and their only two losses on the season are at Allen Fieldhouse to Kansas and to a Texas Tech team that could have been a Final Four contender with a healthy JT Toppin.
Flaws
There aren’t many things to nitpick with Arizona, other than it simply hasn’t gotten to the Final Four since 2001 despite having plenty of favorable seeds and draws since then. The Wildcats also attempt three-pointers at the fourth-lowest rate in the country, so a team that dares it to shoot could have a path to an upset.
The Path
Forget what the odds say about Arizona’s Final Four chances, but I believe they have the easiest region and path to the national semifinals. While Purdue was the Big Ten Tournament champion, they are the weakest No. 2 seed, and a potential Sweet 16 matchup against Arkansas and its flammable guards likely presents the biggest issue.
The Verdict
I believe Arizona makes the Final Four and eventually wins the National Championship, so it is my least likely pick to lose first.
Michigan Wolverines
Overview
Just like Duke, Michigan was dealt some worrisome injury news when L.J. Cason was ruled out for the season with a torn ACL. But even with the injury, the Wolverines can stake a claim to the cool fact that they are the only team in Big Ten history to beat every other team in the conference in the same season.
Flaws
Backcourt depth is all of a sudden an issue without Cason, and starting point guard Elliot Cadeau has had rough shooting stretches dating back to his time with North Carolina. Another thing to nitpick may be that Michigan doesn’t turn opponents over as much as other contenders, as it ranked 10th in league play in turnover rate forced.
The Path
Michigan has a pretty straightforward path to the Elite Eight, as Texas Tech is without JT Toppin. And Alabama would have major issues defending the Wolverines inside or getting three-point shots up against their length.
The Verdict
Michigan can easily lose to Iowa State in the Elite Eight, so it is higher on my list than others because of that Final Four uncertainty.
Florida Gators
Overview
Florida’s 17-point loss in the SEC Tournament to Vanderbilt ended an impressive 12-game winning streak. The Gators nearly relinquished their hold on the fourth No. 1 seed, but neither UConn nor Houston wanted to seize control of it with losses in its conference tournament finals.
Vanderbilt simply proved a bad matchup for Florida because of its quick and shifty guards, but it would take the exact wrong matchup for Florida to lose since it has a distinct size advantage over nearly every other team in the country.
Flaws
Florida showed it was vulnerable to explosive guard play in the loss to Vanderbilt. And compared to the other No. 1 seeds, it wasn’t as consistent through the whole season, as it entered the tournament with seven losses. There is also the question of whether or not Princeton transfer Xaivian Lee is ready to lead this team on a deep March run.
The Path
Many will point to the unfairness that Florida received as a No. 1 seed, being put in a South region with Houston, which is where the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight will be played. But I believe the Gators will make the Elite Eight. Yes, I would have them winning a potential rubber match in the Sweet 16 with Vanderbilt. They could overcome the home-court advantage the Cougars would own by dominating the paint, much like Arizona did to them in two wins this season.
The Verdict
Florida is my pick to represent the left side of the bracket in the National Championship, so it ranks third on my list (second in confidence).
Likelihood to Lose First Rankings
- Michigan
- Duke (moves to No. 1 if it has to play St. John’s in the Sweet 16)
- Florida
- Arizona
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.