As we approach Week 4 of the NFL preseason, we have gathered as much data as possible upon which to base projections. With this information, it is now time to make our most informed decisions on NFL win totals. After explaining my AFC favorites yesterday, let’s now take a look at the NFC best bets. And check out all of our consensus NFC over/under totals here.
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Chicago Bears Under 9 wins (+120)
It's important to keep huge win improvements from the prior year in context. Last season, the Bears finished 12-4, increasing their win total from 2017 by seven games. However, this was a Chicago team that greatly benefited from a last-place schedule and enters the season with question marks in several key places.
Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky must improve upon his career 31-to-19 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Per PlayerProfiler, he ranked sixth-worst with 26 interceptable passes and 29th in deep-ball completion percentage. The Bears are also relying on unproven rookie David Montgomery and veteran journeyman Mike Davis to solidify their running game. However, their biggest question comes at defensive coordinator, where Chuck Pagano takes over for Vic Fangio, who left to become the head coach of the Denver Broncos. Last year, Fangio guided the Bears defense to a first-place finish first in defensive DVOA by a substantial margin.
Chicago also faces a dramatic increase in their strength of schedule. Besides facing the Saints, Chargers, Eagles, and Rams during a five-week mid-season stretch, they end the year with Dallas, at Green Bay, Kansas City, and at Minnesota. The loss of Fangio, questionable quarterback play, inexperienced running backs, and a brutal schedule? It makes an 8-8 finish the Bears inevitable ceiling.
Dallas Cowboys Over 9 (-120)
This is the Cowboys’ most talented roster during the Jason Garrett era. Dallas has an elite offensive line, explosive playmakers, and a top overall defense. Over the past five seasons, the Cowboys have won nine or more games four times. The most important returning player is center Travis Frederick, who missed the entire 2018 season with Guillian-Barre syndrome. His return solidifies Dallas as the second-best offensive line per Pro Football Focus. Wide receiver Amari Cooper averaged 8.4 targets, 5.9 receptions, and 80.4 yards in his nine games with the Cowboys last season, vastly improving the offense simply by his presence. With both Cooper and quarterback Dak Prescott in a contract year, both have extra motivation to have their most productive season.
The Dallas defense is again strong after finishing fifth in defensive run DVOA last season. Defensive ends DeMarcus Lawrence and Robert Quinn will anchor the defensive line while working in front of the best linebacking core in the league. The Cowboys have exceptional balance on both sides of the ball. Dallas is favored in 11 of their 16 games and should easily reach double-digit wins in 2019.
Carolina Panthers Under 8 (+100)
This pick is mainly on the improvement of the other teams in the NFC South. The Saints are a Super Bowl favorite coming off a 13-3 season, the Falcons bolstered their offensive line and are finally healthy on defense, and Tampa Bay promises to be much improved under new head coach Bruce Arians. Where does that leave a Carolina team without a playoff win since their Super Bowl appearance in 2015?
The Carolina offense centers around quarterback Cam Newton, who suffered a foot injury last week coming off shoulder surgery in January. While Newton enjoyed a career-high 67.9 percent completion percentage last season, he failed to break 60 percent in any of the prior four seasons. The pressure is on defensive-minded head coach Ron Rivera to improve a defense that dropped from seventh to 22nd in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders. The Panthers also hope new acquisitions, Gerald McCoy and Bruce Irvin, can improve their pitiful 35 sack total that ranked 27th in the league. Facing the second-worst slate of opposing pass offenses per Sharp Football, the Panthers have one of the lowest floors of any NFC team. This is a pick against Carolina’s defense and Newton's health, and in support of a very strong group of division opponents.
Detroit Lions Under 6.5 (+120)
The Lions are a bad football team with a brutal schedule. After profiling as a team on the rise with consecutive 9-7 seasons, Detroit regressed to 6-10 in Matt Patricia's first year as head coach. His steadfast belief in a run-first offense was solidified with the hiring of Darrell Bevell as offensive coordinator. The Lions are banking much of their success on second-year running back Kerryon Johnson. While Johnson possesses a three-down skill set, he also missed six games with a knee injury and only six games with 10 or more carries.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford's efficiency regressed last season as well. Per PlayerProfiler, Stafford’s red zone, deep ball, and pressured completion percentages all decreased. His touchdowns dropped by 28-percent while his total interceptions increased. Detroit’s defense loses pass-rusher Ezekiel Ansah and finished fifth-worst in defensive DVOA in 2018 (Football Outsiders). The Lions also only ranked 29th last season with seven interceptions.
In 2019, Detroit is only favored in three of their 16 games and have an incredibly difficult stretch after Week 1. After their road game at Arizona, the Lions play the Chargers, at Philadelphia, Kansas City, at Green Bay, and Minnesota. If they lose Week 1, an 0-6 start is very possible. In a make-or-break season for Matt Patricia, take the under on the 6.5 win line.
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Mike Randle is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @randlerant.