Skip to main content

NFL Best Bet for Bills at Chiefs: Sunday Night Football (Week 5)

by October 10, 2021
Josh Allen

If you’re like me, you fall victim to the Sunday scaries every week. The crushing reality of work yet-to-be-done starts to sink in sometime in the afternoon, and it’ll ruin the rest of the day if you let it. Fortunately, it doesn’t have to — just change the channel to ESPN! It’s much easier to procrastinate with Sunday Night Football occupying your attention.

PointsBet understands the struggle. That’s why they’re offering a $20 risk-free bet for Sunday night’s action. You can take advantage of the promotion on any market with a minimum of -200 odds. Unlike whatever work you’ve put off all weekend, you won’t have to worry about negative consequences with this offer.

Get a $20 risk-free bet on Sunday Night Football at PointsBet >>

Picks YTD: 4-1-0* (+1.42u)
All NFL Bets YTD: 16-12-0 (+0.41u)
*I gave out two picks in Week 4.

Josh Allen o32.5 Rushing Yards | -115 at PointsBet

Wheels up! Josh Allen should surpass this relatively low total against the Chiefs. He did so twice against them last season. He fan for 42 yards on eight attempts in Week 6 and 88 yards on seven attempts in the AFC Championship Game.

Allen has continued to run the ball effectively this season. He is averaging 32.3 rushing yards per game but has surpassed this total three times and has a median figure of 38 rushing yards per game. A nine-yard performance against the Football Team is unfairly hurting his average. Assuming that PointsBet has based this line on that number (which they appear to have done), that showing also creates a bit of value here.

I also like this play because the Kansas City Chiefs have surrendered the most rushing yards to quarterbacks thus far. While they can blame some of that on their matchups, as they have faced Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts, they gave Justin Herbert his season-high of 16 rushing yards in Week 3. And even without Lamar Jackson’s 107 rushing yards from Week 2, the Chiefs would still rank as a below-average unit against quarterback runs on a per-game basis.

Kansas City’s defense ranks 32nd in rushing defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and 31st in passing DVOA. Allen will have his way with the Chiefs in this one. PointsBet doesn’t offer a combined rushing and passing yard line, but you can buy Allen to record over 340.5 combined yards at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.

Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

NFL, Offers, Picks, PointsBet