The 100th NFL season kicked off with a low-scoring matchup between the Packers and Bears. While there was terrific defense being played, there is no doubt the offenses were sloppy. This is what Week 1 in the NFL has become, with many players opting to wait until the regular season to see live action. Keep that in mind when you bet this week because we could see many more games hit the under.
To make your Week 1 betting a bit easier and more successful, here is a list of the five best bets for NFL Week 1.
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Cleveland Browns (-5.5) vs Tennessee Titans
The Browns will be too much for the Titans to handle at home. With both offensive tackles for Tennessee likely out, Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon are going to have a field day. The two combined for 50 quarterback hits and 20.5 sacks last season. According to Pro Football Focus, the Titans' offensive line has a 25% disadvantage in pass blocking this weekend. When the Browns get a lead with their new-look offense, the Titans will utilize Dion Lewis a bit more, which keeps the best offensive player, Derrick Henry, off the field for the Titans.
Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) at Carolina Panthers
This spread continues to shrink, which makes me even more excited to bet on the Rams in this one. Last season, the Rams were among the best offenses in the league, averaging 30.8 points per game. The Panthers, on the other hand, averaged just 23.5 points per game. Los Angeles returns Cooper Kupp from injury while also introducing electric rookie running back Darrell Henderson to the offense. On the other side, the Panthers look to have holes in their defense, which Sean McVay could exploit as well as anyone. Offensively for the Panthers, they have a new center, which has Aaron Donald licking his chops. Donald will collapse the pocket and the athleticism of the defense around him will contain Cam Newton, causing the home offense to struggle.
Baltimore Ravens (-7) at Miami Dolphins
The Ravens want to change the way the game is played, which likely means the 48% of running offensive plays from last season will be higher, especially if they get up early, which is expected. This means the clock continues to run, the defense catches their breath and the number of possessions in the game shrinks. This also means every mistake made by Miami becomes that much more valuable, and it's a lot easier to make mistakes passing the football than running it, especially when your top receiving weapon is Albert Wilson. The Ravens will control the clock and dominate the Dolphins from whistle to whistle. There also isn’t much confidence the Dolphins can spend much time in Ravens territory, due to having the worst offensive line in football and possibly the worst receiving corps to accompany it.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (Under 45.5)
Both of these teams want to run the football a lot, which will keep the clock ticking and reduce the number of possessions. Jay Gruden has already said the offense is expected to run through Derrius Guice. With Case Keenum at quarterback and essentially no receivers (especially with Jordan Reed in concussion protocol), Washington has to run and play solid defense to even hang in games. However, the Eagles are currently favored by 10 points at home, which will lead Doug Pederson to control the clock with Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders to reduce any risk of putting Carson Wentz in danger. The total has hit the under in 13 of Washington’s last 20 games, while the under has hit in eight of Philadelphia’s last 12 games. This should be an easy under bet for a Week 1 game.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (Under 49.5)
Both the Steelers and the Patriots are prone to hitting the under. The under has hit in nine of the last 12 games for New England. We also know of Ben Roethlisberger’s struggles on the road historically, which has caused the Steelers total to hit the under in five of the last six road games. What the Patriots do defensively is take away the opposing team’s top weapon and force them to score using the supporting cast. With Antonio Brown out of town, that’s one less weapon, meaning few playmakers on the field once New England takes away either JuJu Smith-Schuster or James Conner. The last meeting between the teams was last December, which resulted in a 17-10 win for the Steelers, far below the 56.0 over/under.
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Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.