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NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Dolphins vs. Commanders)

Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Nov 15, 2025
Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Nov 15, 2025
NFL Betting Primer Dolphins Commanders

¡Hola, Madrid! Miami's offense hits the Santiago Bernabéu spotlight against a Washington Commanders squad that looks more cooked than a Thanksgiving turkey.

Neutral-site travel tends to lean toward favorites/unders - but Miami's speed on offense can break scripts fast.

BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet (Through Week 10):

  • 57.2% win rate
  • 9.21% ROI
  • 87.59 units

Don’t miss the edge before kickoff: passing, rushing, and receiving props have been our most efficient categories this season.

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NFL Betting Systems

International Series (Spain) Betting Primer

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins - Sunday, 9:30 AM ET (NFL Network / NFL+) - Madrid, Spain

Erickson's Pick: Dolphins -2.5

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

  • The Commanders have conceded the first touchdown in each of their last seven games.
  • The Commanders have lost each of their last five games (last four by 20-plus points).
  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last four games against the Commanders.
  • Each of the Dolphins’ last four games at neutral venues has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in 18 of their last 24 games against teams with a losing record (75%).
  • Miami is 14-9 ATS as a favorite since 2023 (61%). 5-1 ATS as road favorite (83%).
  • Favorites tend to dominate international games both ATS and SU.
  • Six of the last nine international games have gone OVER the total.
  • Eight of the last 14 international games have gone UNDER the total.
  • The Commanders scored 22-plus points per game in three of Marcus Mariota's three starts this season. Those three games went OVER 60 points.
  • Mariota is 1-3 ATS this season - but 3-1 toward the over. Covered in his first home start.
  • Eight of the Commanders' last 10 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington allows 20 points or fewer on defense since the start of last season, they are 10-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 26-7 toward the OVER.
  • The Dolphins’ defense ranks in the top 10 in red-zone scoring. Over the last three weeks, they have allowed just 17 points per game.
  • Eleven of the Dolphins' last 15 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Washington looks cooked-injuries, suspensions (looking at you, Daron Payne), and nothing reliable on defense-while Miami's offense generally hums when Tua Tagovailoa avoids the giveaways against inferior/undermanned defensive units.

The Commanders rank 30th in takeaways this season.

Pass rusher Chop Robinson will also be back for Miami to help bolster their defense that ranks inside the top-10 in red zone scoring allowed. Over the last three weeks, they have allowed just 17 points per game.

Neutral site or not, it profiles like a "just win" spot for the favorite as Mike McDaniel battles to keep his HC job beyond the 2025 season: Dolphins -2.5.

Worth noting that this is Dan Quinn's first international trip as an NFL HC.

Jaylen Waddle has now topped 82 yards in five of his six games this season without Tyreek Hill, averaging over seven targets and 79 yards per contest when Hill plays fewer than 50% of snaps or misses entirely (10-game sample size).

The Commanders have allowed the 2nd-most yards to WRs this season and the 3rd-most receiving TDs to WRs. Waddle has scored in 5/10 games this season.

Conversely, the Dolphins have allowed the fewest yards to WRs this season.

Deebo Samuel has gone UNDER 52.5 receiving yards in four straight and in all but one start with Marcus Mariota as the Commanders’ QB1 (4/5).

According to Next Gen Stats, Samuel’s 1.8 yards per route run is below his career average of 2.3 entering this season. Samuel is averaging just 5.0 YAC per reception this season; he'd previously averaged at least 8.5 in every other season of his career. His missed tackle forced rate (17.4%) is well below his previous season low (24.7%, 2021).

Props:

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